WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The week ahead promises no surprises, in the first-quarter GDP report, the FOMC meeting, durable goods report, the price of oil, the president’s address to Congress, the gradually improving trend of virus cases unless … .
Unless you count the preternaturally moderate benchmark U.S. 10-year yield. At this writing 1.567%. Who at the end of last month, when it was peaking at 1.745%, would have expected it to gently de-escalate?
Unless you would consider it surprising that Bitcoin is not regaining its lofty heights around $64,000. Or that Coinbase won’t see $429 again any time soon. Or if you think GameStop will be getting back to $347. Wait, Polkadot is still above $30. There’s hope.
About the FOMC meeting, MaceNews’ Steve Beckner lays it out at length, why it’s still a little bit jarring to see the new policy in action – or inaction – while GDP is expected to have topped 6% growth in the first quarter. His analysis is at: https://macenews.comus-economy-roaring-back-but-fomc-not-ready-to-respond-yet/
The stock markets’ brief spasm of sympathy was touching Thursday for those half million fortunate souls making more than a million a year who might someday, if the House Ways & Means Committee agrees, face much higher capital gains taxes. It faded fast and the losses for the week for the majors was less than half a percent. WTI and Brent were grazed. The week was kinder elsewhere. The Shanghai Stock Exchange was up 1.39%. Corn was up 12%. Platinum was up another 2.2%.
Another asset class, in this era of human capital, were young Americans many of whom found they will be renters a lot longer. After the National Association of Realtors reported the prices of single family homes went up a record 18.4% for a year through March MaceNews asked Chief Economist Lawrence Yun for the long view.
He said it “should be very concerning for somebody” that the country is dividing its younger generations more definitively between “haves and have-nots.” After a while that spells political crises.
A side effect of having record tight supply, as the U.S. housing industry fails to increase production in the face of strong demand, Yun said, is that minorities may feel the string of increasing housing discrimination. When every seller sees multiple offers, he said, they can pick and choose. They can select away from those Asian, Black and Hispanic names.
The younger generations are already going to bear the burden of years of lackluster productivity growth, a deficient education system, the pandemic’s educational penalty, years of a bandwidth-deprived national legislature, climate change damage, higher taxes, gargantuan national debt service and world-beating medical care costs. Is a storm brewing? Check back in a few years.
Meanwhile, Russia seems to be backing away from its Ukraine scare tactics. Virus hospitalizations and death tolls, at least in the United States, are trending down impressively. And the underlying momentum toward a mammoth infrastructure spending program is building, regardless what you read about definitions and priorities and internal disagreements in both parties. There is a primal congressional hunger to give the country a facelift and more to the point, get those long-dormant local projects moving. How mammoth? Bet on the large sized versions.
If you count the FOMC, there’s more than two dozen data points in the week ahead, but again, surprises will be at a minimum. The American economy lumbers into May with its flywheel accelerated by Treasury checks, rebound consumption and the vision of more restaurant meals, comforting warm breezes and a perhaps deceptive afterglow of surface normalcy while it drags all its problems along for the ride. The upcoming economic data is below:
Upcoming Economic Data and Federal Reserve Events
Monday, April 26 – 12:01a ET US NABE Business Conditions Survey
Monday, April 26 – 8:30a ET US durable goods orders (+1.4% expected)
Monday, April 26 – 2p ET US NABE news conference
Monday, April 26 – 2:30p Dallas Fed Manufacturing index
Tuesday, April 27 – 8:55a Redbook same-store wkly retail sales
Tuesday, April 27 – 9a Case-Shiller home price index
Tuesday, April 27 – Two-day FOMC meeting begins
Tuesday, April 27 – 10a Apr Conference Board consumer confidence index
Tuesday, April 27 – 10a US Census quarterly homeownership rate
Tuesday, April 27 – 10a Richmond Fed manufacturing index
Wednesday, April 27 – 10:30a Dallas Fed services survey
Wednesday, April 27 – US MBA wkly mortgage applications
Wednesday, April 28 – 8:30a US Census advance int’l in goods
Wednesday, April 28 – US wholesale inventories
Wednesday, April 28 – 10:30a US EIA oil stocks
Wednesday, April 28 – 2p FOMC policy statement (no dot plot)
Wednesday, April 28 – 2:30p Fed Chair Jay Powell news conference
Wednesday, April 28 – 9p President Biden’s address to a joint session of Congress
Thursday, April 29 – 8:30a DoL wkly jobless benefit initial claims
Thursday, April 29 – 8:30a Q1 US GDP
Thursday, April 29- 10a US NAR pending home sale index
Thursday, April 29 – 11a Fed Vice Chair Quarles speaks
Thursday, April 29 – 2p NYFed’s Williams speaks, Econ Club of NY
Friday, April 30 – Q1 US employment cost index
Friday, April 30 – US March personal income
Friday, April 30 – 9:45a Chicago PMI
Friday, April 30 – 10a – UMich Apr final consumer sentiment index
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Contact this reporter: denny@macenews.com.
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