WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The Federal Open Market Committee minutes of its January 28-29 meeting Wednesday added little if anything to the policy statement, the chairman’s news conference and conventional wisdom, finding efforts to replenish reserve balances adequate and the balance of risks somewhat more favorable.
The following excerpt, of the views of Fed Board and regional bank presidents, has bold-faced emphasis added:
Participants’ Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook
Participants agreed that the labor market had remained strong over the intermeeting period and that economic activity had risen at a moderate rate. Job gains had been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate had remained low. Although household spending had risen at a moderate pace, business fixed investment and exports had remained weak. On a 12‑month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy were running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed.
Participants generally judged that the current stance of monetary policy was appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation returning to the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective. They expected economic growth to continue at a moderate pace, supported by accommodative monetary and financial conditions. In addition, some trade uncertainties had diminished recently, and there were some signs of stabilization in global growth. Nonetheless, uncertainties about the outlook remained, including those posed by the outbreak of the coronavirus.
In their discussion of the household sector, participants noted that spending growth had moderated in the fourth quarter. However, they generally expected that, in the period ahead, consumption spending would likely remain on a firm footing, supported by strong labor market conditions, rising incomes, and healthy household balance sheets. Some participants noted the upbeat tone of consumer surveys, and a few commented that their District contacts had reported solid retail sales during the holiday shopping season. In addition, many participants were encouraged by the significant pickup since last summer in residential investment, a development that reflected, in part, the effects of lower mortgage rates.
With respect to the business sector, participants observed that business investment and exports remained weak and that manufacturing output had declined over the past year. Looking ahead, participants were generally cautiously optimistic about the effects on the business sector of the recent favorable trade developments and the signs of stabilization in global growth. Many participants expressed the view that these developments might boost business confidence or raise export demand, which would help strengthen or at least stabilize business investment. A few participants remarked that contacts in their Districts had noted that business sentiment was brighter or that companies were intending to expand their capital expenditures this year. Several other participants, however, judged that the effect of the recent trade agreement with China would be relatively limited, as trade uncertainty would likely remain elevated, with the possibility remaining of the emergence of new tensions as well as the reescalation of existing tensions. They noted that the agreement would still leave a large portion of tariffs in place and that many firms had already been making production and supply chain adjustments in response to trade tensions.
Participants also commented on ongoing challenges facing the energy and agriculture sectors. A couple of participants remarked that activity in the energy sector continued to be weak, and a few noted that financial conditions in the agricultural sector would likely remain challenging for many despite farm subsidies from the federal government and recent optimism surrounding trade prospects.
Participants judged that conditions in the labor market remained strong, with the unemployment rate at a 50‑year low and continued solid job gains, on average. Although the upcoming annual benchmark revision was expected to reduce estimates of recent payroll growth, participants expected payroll employment to expand at a healthy pace this year. Business contacts in many Districts indicated continued strong labor demand, with several participants mentioning that contacts reported difficulties in finding qualified workers or that observed wage growth might currently understate the degree of tightness in the labor market. However, a number of participants indicated that aggregate measures of nominal wages continued to rise at a moderate pace broadly in line with productivity growth and the rate of inflation. Several participants commented on potential reasons for the absence of stronger broad-based wage pressures, including technological changes that could substitute for labor, increased willingness of employees to forgo wage gains for greater job stability, adjustments in nonwage portions of compensation packages, and the possibility that the labor market was not as tight as the historically low unemployment rate would suggest. Many participants pointed to the strong performance of labor force participation despite the downward pressures associated with an aging population, and several raised the possibility that there was some room for labor force participation to rise further.
In their discussion of inflation developments, participants noted that recent readings on overall and core PCE price inflation, measured on a 12-month basis, had continued to run below 2 percent. Overall, participants described their inflation outlook as having changed little since December. Participants generally expected inflation to move closer to 2 percent in the coming months as the unusually low readings in early 2019 drop out of the 12-month calculation. Participants also expected that, as the economic expansion continues and resource utilization remains high, inflation would return to the 2 percent objective on a sustainable basis. A few participants expressed less confidence in this outlook for inflation and commented that inflation had averaged less than 2 percent over the past several years even as resource utilization had increased, or pointed to downward pressures from global or technology-related factors that could continue to suppress inflation. A couple of participants, however, noted that some alternative inflation indicators, including trimmed mean measures, suggested that there had been a modest step-up in underlying inflation during 2019 or that underlying inflation could already be at a level consistent with the Committee’s goal.
Participants generally saw the distribution of risks to the outlook for economic activity as somewhat more favorable than at the previous meeting, although a number of downside risks remained prominent. The easing of trade tensions resulting from the recent agreement with China and the passage of the USMCA as well as tentative signs of stabilization in global economic growth helped reduce downside risks and appeared to buoy business sentiment. The risk of a “hard” Brexit had appeared to recede further. In addition, statistical models designed to estimate the probability of recession using financial market data suggested that the likelihood of a recession occurring over the next year had fallen notably in recent months. Still, participants generally expected trade-related uncertainty to remain somewhat elevated, and they were mindful of the possibility that the tentative signs of stabilization in global growth could fade. Geopolitical risks, especially in connection with the Middle East, remained. The threat of the coronavirus, in addition to its human toll, had emerged as a new risk to the global growth outlook, which participants agreed warranted close watching.
In their discussion of financial stability, participants acknowledged the staff report suggesting that overall financial vulnerabilities remained moderate and that the financial system remained resilient. Nonetheless, several participants observed that equity, corporate debt, and CRE valuations were elevated and drew attention to high levels of corporate indebtedness and weak underwriting standards in leveraged loan markets. Some participants expressed the concern that financial imbalances—including overvaluation and excessive indebtedness—could amplify an adverse shock to the economy, that the current conditions of low interest rates and labor market tightness could increase risks to financial stability, or that cyber attacks could affect the U.S. financial system. Several participants noted that planned increases in dividend payouts by large banks and the associated decline in capital buffers might leave those banks with less capacity to weather adverse shocks—which could have negative implications for the economy—or that lower bank capital ratios could be associated with greater tail risks to GDP growth. On the other hand, capital levels at U.S. banks were quite high relative to other sectors of the financial system, raising questions about the potential migration of lending activities away from the U.S. banking sector to areas outside the oversight of federal banking supervisors.
In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants judged that it would be appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation returning to the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective. With regard to monetary policy beyond this meeting, participants viewed the current stance of policy as likely to remain appropriate for a time, provided that incoming information about the economy remained broadly consistent with this economic outlook. Of course, if developments emerged that led to a material reassessment of the outlook, an adjustment to the stance of monetary policy would be appropriate, in order to foster achievement of the Committee’s dual-mandate objectives.
In commenting on the monetary policy outlook, participants concurred that maintaining the current stance of policy would give the Committee time for a fuller assessment of the ongoing effects on economic activity of last year’s shift to a more accommodative policy stance and would also allow policymakers to accumulate further information bearing on the economic outlook. Participants discussed how maintaining the current policy stance for a time could be helpful in supporting U.S. economic activity and employment in the face of global developments that have been weighing on spending decisions.
With regard to the Committee’s price-stability objective, participants observed that the current degree of monetary policy accommodation would be useful in facilitating a return of inflation to 2 percent. Several participants noted that inflation returning to 2 percent would help ensure that longer-term inflation expectations remained consistent with the Committee’s longer-run inflation objective. A few participants stressed that the Committee should be more explicit about the need to achieve its inflation goal on a sustained basis. Several participants suggested that inflation modestly exceeding 2 percent for a period would be consistent with the achievement of the Committee’s longer-run inflation objective and that such mild overshooting might underscore the symmetry of that objective. With regard to the Committee’s maximum employment objective, a few participants observed that the actual level of employment might still be below maximum employment and that maintaining the present monetary policy stance would allow the economy to achieve that maximum level. A couple of other participants expressed concern that tight labor markets have in the past been associated with economic and financial imbalances and that the emergence of such imbalances might jeopardize the longer-run attainment of the Committee’s dual-mandate goals.
Participants discussed the open market operations that the Federal Reserve had undertaken since September to implement monetary policy, as well as forthcoming operational measures. Participants agreed that the operations undertaken by the Desk since mid-September had been effective in helping to stabilize conditions in money markets and that implementation of the plan that the Committee announced in October to purchase Treasury bills and conduct repo operations had proceeded smoothly. Participants observed that enactment of this plan had succeeded in replenishing reserve balances to levels at or above those prevailing in early September 2019 and in ensuring continued control of the federal funds rate. Many participants stressed that, as reserves approached durably ample levels, the need for sizable Treasury bill purchases and repo operations would diminish and that such operations could be gradually scaled back or phased out. Beyond that point, regular open market operations would be required over time in order to accommodate the trend growth in the Federal Reserve’s liabilities and maintain an ample level of reserves. Participants who commented on the Desk’s proposal for the transition to the ample-reserves regime indicated that they were comfortable with that proposal. They remarked that the details of the Committee’s plans would be adjusted as appropriate to support effective implementation of monetary policy. Participants noted that it would be important to continue to communicate to the public that open market operations now and in the period ahead were technical operations aimed at achieving and maintaining ample reserves and that any adjustments to those operations were not intended to represent a change in the stance of monetary policy. Several participants suggested that the Committee should resume before long its discussion of the role that repo operations might play in an ample-reserves regime, including the possible creation of a standing repo facility. A couple of these participants cited the potential for such a facility to reduce the banking system’s demand for reserves over the longer term.