Contact Mace News President
Tony Mace tony@macenews.com
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No matter the area being covered, the reporter is always only a telephone call or message away. We check with you frequently to see how we can improve. Have a question, need to be briefed via video or audio-only on a topic’s state of play, keep us on speed dial. See the list of interest areas we cover elsewhere
on this site.
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—
Tony Mace was the top editorial executive for Market News
International for two decades.
Washington Bureau Chief Denny Gulino had the same title at Market News for 18 years.
Similar experience undergirds our service in Ottawa, London, Brussels and in Asia.
President
Mace News
D.C. Bureau Chief
Mace News
Federal Reserve
Mace News
Reporter and expert on the currency market.
Mace News
Reporter and expert on derivatives and fixed income markets.
Mace News
Financial Journalist
Mace News
Reporter, economic and political news.
Japan and Canada
Mace News
WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The following are the remarks of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh prepared for delivery Tuesday to the Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing:
Good morning, Mr. Chairman, and thank you. It’s an honor to be with you, Ranking Member
Warren, and the entire committee. I appreciate your time and consideration today, and your
many courtesies, before and since my nomination.
I am deeply grateful to President Trump for asking me to take on this public trust. He believes
that US economic growth and real take-home pay will accelerate. I share the President’s
confidence in our country and its people. America’s economic growth potential is rising.
With me today are a few of my dearest and oldest friends. I’m especially happy that my wife,
Jane, is here as well. And at important moments in life, I think of my late Mom and Dad. I’m
proud of them and I hope they would be proud of me today.
We start today on a note of broad agreement: this is a time of great consequence for the
nation’s economy, perhaps the most significant hinge point in a couple of generations. If
policymakers across our government meet this signal moment with wisdom and clarity, then
the American economy will thrive.
As a former Fed governor—and friend or colleague of the last five Fed chiefs—I am particularly
alert to the challenges and opportunities confronting the institution I cherish, the Federal
Reserve.
To the President, Congress, and the nation, I owe my best judgment and most faithful efforts in
serving the mission Congress assigned to the Fed, including price stability and full
employment. The American people are counting on the Fed to deliver on its commitments.
Members of the committee might be familiar with my formal education and work history. The
real highpoints, however, are more personal. They include the individuals with whom I worked
and from whom I learned.
I graduated from high school in upstate New York. I had some exceptional teachers there, and
many brilliant classmates I remember well. We’re lucky in life if we start out with good
influences in learning and in character. A public-school education gave me those, and I’m
grateful.
2
I made my way to Stanford University, and as a student and researcher found myself in the
company of some highly accomplished economists and policymakers. Many of my teachers
served in and around government during the prior hinge point in American history, the malaise
of the 1970s and the comeback years of the 1980s and 1990s. George Shultz, the former
secretary of state and treasury, was among the great patriots at the Hoover Institution who I
came to know as mentor and friend.
I could not have imagined a better formative experience: a chance to observe disciplined
thinking . . . to learn rigorous statistical and economic methods . . . to appreciate geopolitical
and economic history . . . to exercise independence of mind . . . to resist fads and groupthink .
. . to witness humility among the most expert . . . and, perhaps most important, to be around
people completely devoted to the ideas and ideals of our country.
Silicon Valley in the early 1990s was a fitting backdrop to all of this. The United States was
entering a new era of technological leadership, and a new cadre of business builders was
emerging. Many of them were classmates, and they would become life-long friends.
I don’t know whether to chalk any of it up to serendipity. Whatever the source, I was in the
right place at the right time. Those early influences set a standard I have always tried to meet,
in public service and private enterprise.
That goes for colleagues and mentors later in life, too. In the last 15 years, I’ve gained deep,
hands-on experience in macroeconomics and financial markets, most notably working with
Stan Druckenmiller, one of the most successful investors of our time.
Stan never held a position in government but is no less a patriot. He never got a Ph.D., but I
know of no better, nor a more open-minded economic thinker. He has never flaunted his
philanthropy but has helped many thousands of young Americans to get a first-rate education
and a real chance to rise.
Like Secretary Shultz, Stan never once sat me down to give a lecture. Instead, he offered me
something better: a seat at the table by his side.
Without their guidance—and that of a few other great mentors including my current boss and
close friend at the Hoover Institution, former secretary of state Condoleezza Rice—I doubt I
would be sitting before you today as the President’s Fed chairman-nominee. But I am certain
of one thing: I would not be as prepared for the urgent, mission-critical task at hand.
In between these book-end experiences, I served for more than a decade in government, first
on the White House economic staff, and then as a member of the Fed’s board of governors. In
fact, it was twenty years ago, almost to the day, when I sat before this committee as a Fed
governor-nominee.
3
Little did any of us—myself included—know that it would be a time like no other.
During the great financial crisis—when shocks hit our economy, unemployment spiked, our
economic system faced collapse, and America’s standing in the world was scrutinized—our
central bank played an indispensable role. My colleagues and I leveraged the tools and
powers that the Fed, and only the Fed, had to deploy. We benefitted enormously from the
credibility that our predecessors had built up and passed down to us.
In unusual and exigent circumstances, I saw the Fed and its people at their best. I served with
scores of first-rate, dedicated professionals in Washington and at the reserve banks who
rallied around a common mission and a wise and resolute Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke. We
worked closely with the Treasury Department, the Administration, and Congress to mitigate the
risks of systemic failure–no sure thing at the time.
In the period after the crisis, I also witnessed an institution that was tempted to play a larger
role in the economy and society . . . to extend its reach and stretch its hard-earned credibility,
often with the best intentions, to the very edge of, if not beyond, the Fed’s statutory
responsibilities.
The question of a central bank’s role and responsibility in our republic dates to America’s
founding. There is an equally long history of fierce debates about the central bank’s
independence.
So let me be clear: monetary policy independence is essential. Monetary policymakers must
act in the nation’s interest . . . their decisions the product of analytic rigor, meaningful
deliberation, and unclouded decision-making.
I do not believe the operational independence of monetary policy is particularly threatened
when elected officials—presidents, senators, or members of the House—state their views on
interest rates. Central bankers must be strong enough to listen to a diversity of views from all
corners . . . humble enough to be open-minded to new ideas and new economic developments
. . . wise enough to translate imperfect data into meaningful insight . . . and dedicated enough
to make judgments faithfully and wisely.
Simply stated, Fed independence is largely up to the Fed. That has three important
implications worth highlighting.
First, Congress tasked the Fed with the mission to ensure price stability, without excuse or
equivocation, argument or anguish. Inflation is a choice, and the Fed must take responsibility
for it.
Low inflation is the Fed’s plot armor, its vital protection again slings and arrows. So, when
inflation surges—as it has done in recent years—grievous harm is done to our citizens,
4
especially to the least well-off. They lose purchasing power. Their standard of living falls.
They may also lose faith in our system of economic governance, raising doubts whether
monetary policy independence is all it’s cracked up to be.
Second, Fed independence is at its peak in the operational conduct of monetary policy. That
degree of independence does not extend to the full range of its congressionally mandated
functions. Fed officials are not entitled to the same special deference in their stewardship of
public monies . . . or in bank regulatory and supervisory policy . . . or in areas affecting
international finance, among other matters.
And third, the Fed must stay in its lane. Fed independence is placed at greatest risk when it
strays into fiscal and social policies where it has neither authority nor expertise. The Fed
should not act as some general-purpose agency of the US government or as an appellate
court for matters that are rightly debated and decided elsewhere.
No doubt there are times when a Fed chief might wish that he or she had the last word, but our
republic doesn’t work that way. I favor a clearer, cleaner match between the Fed’s powers and
responsibilities.
During my prior tour of duty at the Fed, I said: “Central bankers must demonstrate that we are
worthy of this moment and will be steadfast protectors of our institutions’ credibility. That
means respecting our important but circumscribed role in the conduct of policy and performing
our mission with competence and consistency.”1
That’s still true today.
In sum, I believe that monetary policy independence is earned—and better policy decisions
crafted—by steering clear of distractions. I am committed to ensuring that the conduct of
monetary policy remains strictly independent. I am equally committed to working with the
Administration and Congress on non-monetary matters that are part of the Fed’s remit. And I
commit to accountability in all the Fed’s functions.
In my student days, Milton Friedman had a phrase that’s always stayed with me: “the tyranny
of the status quo.” Anyone who has worked at large, complex institutions know what that
means—the pull of inertia . . . the tacit acceptance of old ways of working . . . the unwillingness
to revisit long-held assumptions . . . the use of old models that are no longer fit for purpose . . .
the tendency to kick the can down the road.
Status quo practices and policies are especially harmful when the world is changing fast.
1 “Ode to Independence” (2010).
5
If confirmed as chairman, I will seek to bring the experience of a one-time insider and the
questioning spirit of an outsider. I will keep the Fed mindful of its limits, focused on its mission,
and delivering on its mandate. I will be faithful to the Constitution, to the Federal Reserve Act,
and to the best of the Fed’s traditions.
I know the terrain, and I would be proud to serve again on the Board of Governors. In a time
that will rank among the most consequential in our nation’s history, I believe a reform-oriented
Federal Reserve can make a real difference to the American people. The stakes could
scarcely be higher.
In and out of government, I’ve always tried to look for common objectives, and to pursue them
cordially and cooperatively with my colleagues. If confirmed, I will seek to create an
environment in which the best people can do their life’s best work.
Candor and goodwill can go a long way in pursuing objectives that we all share, and I suspect
this hearing will put us to the test. It’s a real privilege to be here before this committee. My
thanks to each of you, and I welcome your questions
–Exports Likely Remain Resilient in March Trade Data, Inflation Seen Tame Below BOJ’s 2% Target but High Price Levels Still Hurt
By Max Sato
(MaceNews) – Here are the key Japanese events for the coming week. The Bank of Japan’s media communications blackout period starts on Wednesday, three business days before the next policy meeting on April 27-28.
There have been hardly any public speeches by the bank’s nine policymakers since the last meeting on March 18-19 when the board decided in an 8 to 1 vote to leave the target for the overnight interest at 0.75%, still below what is considered to be neutral to economic activity (somewhat above 1% for Japan).
Previously, the bank left the policy rate unchanged in an 8 to 1 vote in January after conducting its first rate hike in six meetings in December by raising it by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) to a 30-year high in a unanimous vote.
The only speech published by the BOJ is a brief statement by Governor Kazuo Ueda read out by one of his two deputies at an annual meeting of the Trust Companies Association of Japan on April 13. (Toihicro Asada, a retired economics professor, held a news conference on April 1 as he joined the board but his remarks were mostly general and he avoided answering crucial questions.)
Ueda said the recent spike in global energy and commodities prices triggered by the Mideast conflict could raise both upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth, a common issue for major central banks, but he seems to be slightly more concerned about the risk of an undesirable rise in prices.
“If downward pressure is placed on the economy and the supply-demand gap widens, this could push down the underlying inflation rate,” he said.
“On the other hand, if rising crude oil prices lead to an increase in people’s medium- to long-term inflation expectations, this is likely to push up the underlying rate of inflation,” the governor said. “Given that firms have become more assertive in their wage and pricing behavior in recent years, it is important to note that this inflationary mechanism may be stronger now than in the past,” he said, repeating the recent official line in the bank’s quarterly Outlook Report (the next issue will be out on April 28).
The summary of opinions from the last policy meeting released on March 30 also explains what risks board members were focusing on and what policy steps they thought the bank should take.
The recent rise in interest rates is not the main reason for firms to put their capital investment plans on hold but widespread labor shortages and elevated costs for materials are hampering a smooth investment in upgrading factories and offices, one member said, according to the summary based on notes submitted by board members and edited by the governor.
Another member summarized what’s next for the board: “The timing for raising the policy interest rate will be determined by assessing factors such as developments in wages, prices, and financial conditions, in addition to the impact of the situation in the Middle East.”
“Specifically, from the next MPM onwards, it will be appropriate to assess in detail whether financial conditions remain accommodative after the last rate hike, while examining how wage and initial price hikes are spreading,” the member said (bold by Mace News).
Among the warnings about the upside risk to inflation, one member said, “Firms’ wage- and price-setting behavior has become more active, with the norm for prices changing and the pass-through of the yen’s depreciation becoming more pronounced.”
“Against this background, there is a risk that the bank may unintentionally fall behind the curve, since the second-round effects and the rise in underlying inflation that stem from overseas developments are more likely to emerge,” the member said. “While uncertainties due to the rise in crude oil prices may exert downward pressure on economic activity over time, the bank should focus for the
time being on addressing higher prices driven by the second-round effects and the rise in inflation expectations.”
Monday, April 20
1330 JST (0430 GMT/0030 EDT Monday, April 20) The Bank of Japan releases the quarterly survey on consumer sentiment, inflation expectations.
Tuesday, April 21
1500 JST (0600 GMT/0200 EDT Tuesday, April 21) The Bank of Japan releases the quarterly financial system report.
Wednesday, April 22
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Tuesday, April 21) The Ministry of Finance releases March, fiscal 2025 merchandise trade.
Mace News median: exports +11.2% y/y (range: +8.9% to +14.2%) vs. revised +4.0% in Feb; imports +5.7% y/y (range: +3.0% to +10.1%) vs. revised +10.3% in Feb; trade surplus ¥1.11 trillion (range: a surplus of ¥530.60 billion to a surplus of ¥1,620.00 billion) vs. a revised ¥44.30 billion surplus in Feb; ¥529.81 surplus in March 2025
Japan’s export values are forecast to post their seventh straight rise on year in March, with the pace of increase recovering to 11.2% after slowing to a revised 4.0% in February, which was in payback for rush shipments to Asia before the Feb. 17 Lunar New Year that saw overall January exports jump 16.8%.
The double-digit percentage gain was likely driven by non-ferrous metals and computer chips as seen in recent months. Japanese carmakers and steel mills are weathering stiff U.S. import duties.
Import values are expected to mark a second straight rise, up 5.7%, after rising a revised 10.3% in February and falling 2.4% in January. The solid increase is seen led by purchases of telecommunications equipment (smartphone), computers chips and non-ferrous metals.
The trade balance is estimated to come to a surplus of ¥1.11 trillion for a fourth positive figure in 12 months after recording a downwardly revised ¥44.30 billion surplus the previous month. It compares with a ¥529.81 billion surplus seen in March 2025.
Wednesday, April 22
1400 JST (0500 GMT/0100 EDT Wednesday, April 22) The Bank of Japan releases the March real trade indexes.
Thursday, April 23
TBA (usually after 1700 JST/0800 GMT/0400 EDT) The Cabinet Office releases the government’s monthly economic report for April. Japanese policymaker remain cautiously optimistic about their gradual economic recovery scenario but last month they warned that the Mideast war is now the biggest source of global uncertainty while downgrading its view on the U.S. economy for the first time in 10 months.
In its monthly report for March, the government basically maintained its core assessment but shifted its focus from the drag from stiff Trump tariffs, saying that the economy is “recovering at a moderate pace but the impact of the situation in the Middle East needs a close attention.” This overview is expected to be little changed in the April report.
Friday, April 24
0830 JST 0830 JST (2330 GMT/1930 EDT Thursday, April 23) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases March, fiscal 2025 average CPI.
Mace News median: total CPI +1.4% y/y (range: +1.2% to +1.6%) vs. Feb +1.3%; core CPI (ex-fresh food) +1.6% y/y (range: +1.5% to +1.9%) vs. Feb +1.6%; core-core CPI (ex-fresh food, energy) +2.4% y/y (range +2.3% to +2.5%) vs. Feb +2.5%
Japan’s consumer inflation is expected to remain tame below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in two of the three key measures in March as renewed subsidies for electricity and fuels continue to ease the upward pressure from a spike in global energy prices amid the lingering Mideast conflict. The BOJ now releases its own core CPI measure that excludes fiscal measures and other one-off factors like mobile phone charge discounts, in hopes of keeping inflation expectations around 2% alive that would allow the bank to continue raising interest rates gradually as part of its policy normalization.
Processed food markups have also been moderating in tandem with fading effects of domestic rice supply shortages, although the level of prices remain high, hurting the purchasing power of many households.
The year-on-year increase in the core CPI (excluding fresh food) is forecast at 1.6% after having eased to a nearly four-year low of 1.6% in February from 2.0% in January. It remains the lowest since 0.8% in March 2022.
The annual rate of the total CPI is seen ticking up to 1.4% after moderating to 1.3% and decelerating sharply to 1.5% in January. The prices of fresh vegetables and fruits as well as rice surged in early 2025 on poor crops of 2024 but have now shown a pullback, cooling off the overall inflation rate.
Underlying inflation, as measured by the core-core CPI that excludes both fresh food and energy, is estimated at 2.4% after unexpectedly edging down to 2.5% in February from 2.6% the previous month.
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Tuesday, April 21) The Ministry of Finance releases March trade.
Mace News median: exports +11.2% y/y (range: +8.9% to +14.2%) vs. a revised +4.0% February from +4.2; imports +5.7% y/y (range: +3.0% to +10.1%) vs. a revised +10.3% in February from +10.2%; trade surplus ¥1,114.20 billion (range: a surplus of ¥530.60 billion to a surplus of ¥1,620.00 billion) vs. a revised ¥44.30 billion surplus in February from ¥57.30 billion; ¥529.81 surplus in March 2025
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japanese export values are expected to rise for a seventh straight month in March and expected to push the country’s trade balance into surplus for a second consecutive month. Rising oil prices amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are seen restraining import volumes, although import values are still expected to increase for a second straight month.
Exports are projected to rise 11.2% on the year in March, accelerating from a revised 4.0% gain in February (initially 4.2%). Solid overseas demand for semiconductor-related electronic components and non-ferrous metals continued to support exports, but growth is seen moderating toward the end of March amid the impact of the U.S.-Iran military tensions.
In February, export growth picked up modestly, partly reflecting payback from front-loaded shipments to Asia ahead of the Feb. 17 Lunar New Year, which had boosted January figures. The February increase was driven by computer chips, mineral fuels and construction machinery, partly offset by declines in semiconductor manufacturing equipment and iron and steel. Exports to Europe and Asia remained firm, while shipments to the U.S. and China declined.
Imports are forecast to rise 5.7% on the year in March, slowing from a revised 10.3% increase in February (initially 10.2%). February imports were led by semiconductor-related components, non-ferrous metals and non-ferrous metal ores, partly reflecting irregular trade patterns linked to Lunar New Year holidays in parts of Asia.
Against this backdrop, Japan’s customs-cleared trade balance is expected to post a surplus of about 1.11 trillion yen in March, a sharp increase from a revised 44.3 billion yen surplus in February.
Consensus outlook for Mace News Tuesday, April 7, 20260830 JST (2350 GMT/1930 EDT Monday, April 6) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases the
Consensus outlook for Mace News Friday, April 10, 2026 0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Thursday, April 9) The Bank of Japan releases the March corporate
–ISM’s Spence: New Orders Creeping Back Down Toward Neutral, Widespread Price Hikes ‘Very Concerning’ By Max Sato (MaceNews) – U.S. manufacturing activity expanded for the
– War Exerts “Upside Risks’ On Inflation, ‘Downside Risks’ On Employment – Must Be ‘Mindful’ To Keep Inflation Expectations ‘Anchored’ By Steven K. Beckner (MaceNews)
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Here are the key Japanese events for the coming week. Lawmakers are set to approve a stop-gap budget to ensure
By Chikafumi Hodo Tuesday, March 310850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Monday, March 30) The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases preliminary February industrial production,
By Chikafumi Hodo Tuesday, March 310830 JST (2330 GMT/1930 EDT Monday, March 30) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases March, fiscal 2025 average
By Chikafumi Hodo Tuesday, March 310830 JST (2330 GMT/1930 EDT Monday, March 30) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases the February unemployment rate.Mace
Contact Mace News President
Tony Mace tony@macenews.com
to find a customer- and markets-oriented brand of news coverage with a level of individualized service unique to the industry. A market participant told us he believes he has his own White House correspondent as Mace News provides breaking news and/or audio feeds, stories, savvy analysis, photos and headlines delivered how you want them. And more. And this is important because you won’t get it anywhere else. That’s MICRONEWS. We know how important to you are the short advisories on what’s coming up, whether briefings, statements, unexpected changes in schedules and calendars and anything else that piques our interest.
No matter the area being covered, the reporter is always only a telephone call or message away. We check with you frequently to see how we can improve. Have a question, need to be briefed via video or audio-only on a topic’s state of play, keep us on speed dial. See the list of interest areas we cover elsewhere
on this site.
—
You can have two weeks reduced price no-obligation trial for $199. No self-renewing contracts. Suspend, renew coverage at any time. Stay with a topic like trade while its hot and suspend coverage or switch coverage areas when it’s not. We serve customers one by one 24/7.
—
Tony Mace was the top editorial executive for Market News International for two decades.
Washington Bureau Chief Denny Gulino had the same title at Market News for 18 years.
Similar experience undergirds our service in Ottawa, London, Brussels and in Asia.