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Tony Mace was the top editorial executive for Market News
International for two decades.
Washington Bureau Chief Denny Gulino had the same title at Market News for 18 years.
Similar experience undergirds our service in Ottawa, London, Brussels and in Asia.
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0830 JST (2330 GMT/1930 EDT Thursday, May 21) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases April CPI.
Mace News median: total CPI +1.8% y/y (range: +1.6% to +1.9%) vs. Mar +1.5%; core CPI (ex-fresh food) +1.7% y/y (range: +1.5% to +1.8%) vs. Mar +1.8%; core-core CPI (ex-fresh food, energy) +2.2% y/y (range +1.9% to +2.3%) vs. Mar +2.4%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s nationwide core consumer price index, excluding fresh food, is expected to decelerate to a 1.7% rise on the year in April from 1.8% the previous month. The closely watched core measure is forecast to stay below the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target for a third straight month.
Consumer inflation has remained subdued as the government introduced new gasoline subsidies from mid-March, helping cushion the impact of higher international oil prices driven by persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East since February. CPI was also weighed down by slower food price inflation amid fading base effects.
Tokyo CPI, a leading indicator of the national trend, slipped below 2% across all three key measures in April as declines in energy prices and child daycare fees weighed on overall prices.
The two other key nationwide CPI measures are expected to show a mixed picture in April compared to the previous month. Overall CPI is forecast to rise 1.8% on the year in April after increasing 1.5% in March. Core-core CPI, which excludes both fresh food and energy, is seen edging down to 2.2% from 2.4% the previous month.
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Wednesday, May 20) The Cabinet Office releases March and January-March machinery orders.
Mace News median: core orders -13.2% m/m (range: -20.0% to -3.1%) vs. Feb +13.6%; +4.5% y/y (range: -9.8% to +8.2%) vs. Feb +24.7%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s core machinery orders, a key leading indicator of business investment in equipment and software, are expected to reverse course in March after unexpectedly strong growth a month earlier, as the impact of tensions in the Middle East is seen more clearly weighing on orders.
Core machinery orders in March are projected to fall 13.2% on the month after surging 13.6% in February, when large-scale orders from sectors such as non-ferrous metals unexpectedly boosted the figures.
March orders are expected to weaken, in line with other capital investment indicators. Domestic shipments of capital goods excluding transport equipment in the industrial production statistics, which are regarded as a coincident indicator, fell on the month in March. There are also signs that domestic demand for machine tools slowed in March.
On a year-on-year basis, machinery orders are expected to rise 4.5% in March after recording double-digit gains for the previous three months. Orders rose 24.7% in February, 13.7% in January and 16.8% in December.
Still, the underlying trend in machinery orders remains firm. The Bank of Japan’s March Tankan survey, released April 1, showed corporate investment sentiment remained resilient despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
For the January-March quarter, machinery orders are expected to rise 5.7% from the previous quarter, marking a second consecutive quarterly increase after rising 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter in 2025 and exceeding the Cabinet Office’s preliminary forecast for a 4.2% decline.
–Long Global Semiconductors Seen as Most Crowded Trade
By Vicki Schmelzer
NEW YORK (MaceNews) – Global fund managers sharply reduced cash and dove into equities in May, according to the latest BofA Global Fund Managers survey, released Tuesday.
The move was driven by “EPS optimism and a forecast of Fed rate cuts,” the survey said.
Cash levels dropped to 3.9% in May from 4.3% in April, “the biggest monthly drop since Feb ‘24,” the survey said, noting that a FMS cash reading below 4.0% “triggers a sell signal” for global equities.
“Note a median 4-week loss from global stocks after 24 sell signals since 2011 is -1% (biggest loss recorded post-sell signal is -29%, biggest gain 4%).
Cash allocation fell to a net 3% overweight in May from a net 20% overweight in April and compared to a net 8% overweight in March.
This month, a net 14% of those polled looked for weaker economic growth in the coming 12 months. In April, a net 36% looked for weaker growth and in March, a net 7% looked for stronger growth in the coming year.
A net 66% of fund managers now look for higher global inflation in the coming year, down from a net 69% in April and compared to a net 45% looking for higher inflation in March.
Fund managers increased equity, real estate and commodity holdings but trimmed bond holdings.
In May, a net 50% of portfolio managers were overweight global equities, up from a net 13% overweight in April and a net 37% overweight in March.
A net 44% of managers were underweight bonds, compared to a net 33% underweight in April and a net 36% underweight in March.
Allocation to real estate stood at a net 14% underweight in May, versus a net 18% underweight in April and a net 16% underweight in March.
This month, commodities allocation rose to a net 31% overweight from a net 20% overweight in April and compared to a net 34% overweight in March..
In terms of regional equity allocation, all regions except for the U.S. and Emerging Markets saw outflows of various sizes.
Allocation to U.S. equities improved to a net 20% overweight in May. This compared to a net 10% underweight in April and a net 17% underweight in March.
In May, a net 4% of those polled were underweight eurozone stocks, down from a net 4% overweight in April and a net 21% overweight in March.
Allocation to global emerging markets (GEM) rose to a net 48% overweight this month, up from a net 41% overweight in April but below the net 53% overweight seen in March.
In May, allocation to Japanese equities fell to a net 13% underweight from a net 11% overweight in April, while UK allocation slipped to a net 26% underweight from a net 16% underweight in April.
In terms of the three biggest “tail risks” seen by managers, in May, these were “2nd wave inflation” (40% of those polled), “Geopolitical conflict” (20%) and “Disorderly rise in bond yields” (18%).
In April, the three biggest “tail risks” were “Geopolitical conflict” (44% of those polled), “Inflation” (26%), and “Disorderly rise in bond yields” (9%).
In May, the three “most crowded” trades were seen as “Long global semiconductors” (73% of those polled), “Long Magnificent 7” (14%) and “Long Oil” (6%).
In April, the three “most crowded” trades were “Long oil” (24% of those polled), “Long global semiconductors” (24%) and “Long Gold” (15%)
Note: the term “Magnificent Seven” was coined by Bank of America’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett, referring to a basket of the seven major tech stocks: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, Alphabet, Tesla and Meta.
An overall total of 200 panelists with $517bn in AUM participated in the BofA Global Research fund manager survey, taken May 8 to May 14, 2026.
Contact this reporter: vicki@macenews.com
– Dissenters Hammack, Kashkari Focus on Inflation; Muse About Possible Rate Hikes – Williams, Others See Monetary Policy as “Well-positioned’ for Foreseeable Future – Weight
–BOJ Board Decides to Stand Pat in 6-to-3 Vote, Mulling Better Timing for Follow-Up Rate Hike By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Here are the key
–Powell: To Stay on Fed Board After Warsh Becomes Chair –Four FOMC Participants Dissented, Three of Them Against Inclusion of Easing Bias – Powell: Monetary
WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The following is a rough transcript of Jerome Powell’s last post-Federal Open Market Committee meeting news conference Wednesday as Federal Reserve chair:
— Four Dissents, Three of Which Opposed Inclusion of Easing Basis; Miran Wanted Rate Cut WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The following is Wednesday afternoon’s policy statement
–Factory Output, Retail Sales Seen Posting Modest Rebound, Unemployment Stable, Inflation in Tokyo Tame By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Here are the key Japanese events
Thursday, April 30, 2026 0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Wednesday, April 29) The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases March retail sales. Mace News
Thursday, April 30, 2026 0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Wednesday, Apr 29) The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases March and January-March industrial production,
Contact Mace News President
Tony Mace tony@macenews.com
to find a customer- and markets-oriented brand of news coverage with a level of individualized service unique to the industry. A market participant told us he believes he has his own White House correspondent as Mace News provides breaking news and/or audio feeds, stories, savvy analysis, photos and headlines delivered how you want them. And more. And this is important because you won’t get it anywhere else. That’s MICRONEWS. We know how important to you are the short advisories on what’s coming up, whether briefings, statements, unexpected changes in schedules and calendars and anything else that piques our interest.
No matter the area being covered, the reporter is always only a telephone call or message away. We check with you frequently to see how we can improve. Have a question, need to be briefed via video or audio-only on a topic’s state of play, keep us on speed dial. See the list of interest areas we cover elsewhere
on this site.
—
You can have two weeks reduced price no-obligation trial for $199. No self-renewing contracts. Suspend, renew coverage at any time. Stay with a topic like trade while its hot and suspend coverage or switch coverage areas when it’s not. We serve customers one by one 24/7.
—
Tony Mace was the top editorial executive for Market News International for two decades.
Washington Bureau Chief Denny Gulino had the same title at Market News for 18 years.
Similar experience undergirds our service in Ottawa, London, Brussels and in Asia.