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Contact Mace News President
Tony Mace tony@macenews.com 
to find a customer- and markets-oriented brand of news coverage with a level of individualized service unique to the industry. A market participant told us he believes he has his own White House correspondent as Mace News provides breaking news and/or audio feeds, stories, savvy analysis, photos and headlines delivered how you want them. And more. And this is important because you won’t get it anywhere else. That’s MICRONEWS. We know how important to you are the short advisories on what’s coming up, whether briefings, statements, unexpected changes in schedules and calendars and anything else that piques our interest.

No matter the area being covered, the reporter is always only a telephone call or message away. We check with you frequently to see how we can improve. Have a question, need to be briefed via video or audio-only on a topic’s state of play, keep us on speed dial. See the list of interest areas we cover elsewhere
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Tony Mace was the top editorial executive for Market News
International for two decades. 

Washington Bureau Chief Denny Gulino had the same title at Market News for 18 years. 

Similar experience undergirds our service in Ottawa, London, Brussels and in Asia. 

 

CONTRIBUTORS

Picture of Tony Mace

Tony Mace

President
Mace News

Picture of Denny Gulino

Denny Gulino

D.C. Bureau Chief
Mace News

Picture of Steven Beckner

Steven Beckner

Federal Reserve
Mace News

Picture of Vicki Schmelzer

Vicki Schmelzer

Reporter and expert on the currency market.
Mace News

Picture of Suzanne Cosgrove

Suzanne Cosgrove

Reporter and expert on derivatives and fixed income markets.
Mace News

Picture of Laurie Laird

Laurie Laird

Financial Journalist
Mace News

Picture of Max Sato

Max Sato

Reporter, economic and political news.
Japan and Canada
Mace News

FRONT PAGE

ISM: US Services Sector Expands for 3rd Straight Month in September on Solid Output, New Orders

–ISM Services Index at 54.9 Vs. 51.5 in August, Well Above Median Forecast 51.5
–ISM’s Miller: Slowe Employment Follows Some Active Hiring in Summer
–Miller: Inflationary Trend Moderating Despite Uptick in September
–Fed Rate Cuts to Underpin Sector Toward Yearend, Port Strikes Wild Card

By Max Sato

(MaceNews) – Business activity in the U.S. services sector accelerated in September for a third consecutive month of expansion thanks to stronger production and new orders while employment slowed but remained stable and inflationary pressures moderated, according to the latest survey by the Institute for Supply Management released Thursday.

The ISM index, which shows the directional change of economic activity, rose 3.4 percentage points to 54.9 in September, reaching the highest since 55.0 in February 2023 and coming in stronger than the consensus call of no change at 51.5. It followed a slight 0.1-point rise to 51.5 in August, a 5.1-point rebound to 52.4 in July from a 6.8-point dip to 47.3 in June, which was the lowest level since 45.4 in May 2020.

“The stronger growth indicated by the index data was generally supported by panelists’ comments; however, concerns over political uncertainty are more prevalent than last month,” Steve Miller, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, said in a statement. “Pricing of supplies remains an issue with supply chains continuing to stabilize; one respondent voiced concern over potential port labor issues. The interest-rate cut was welcomed; however, labor costs and availability continue to be a concern across most industries.”

The services sector continues to outperform manufacturing industries, which in Tuesday’s report showed contraction for the sixth straight month in September on continued sluggish demand as firms remain reluctant to invest in capacity amid uncertainty over the pace of the Federal Reserve’s unwinding of its tight monetary policy and the outcome of the presidential election next month.

Looking ahead, Miller said, interest rates on auto loans and mortgage rates have already come down ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut in September and more rate reductions projected by Fed policymakers should support the sector toward yearend after an historically weak third quarter.

“The wild card right now is how long the port strikes last,” Miller said. “Inventories are up, which is a good thing … and trucking companies are already positioning capacity out of the west coast.”

Sector inventories are likely to be depleted in two weeks if the dock workers continue to walk off the job, Miller estimates. East and Gulf coast cargo-handlers launched their first large-scale strike in nearly 50 years this week, demanding higher wages and job security against automation.

“What I’ve been hearing (is that) a week-long strike is going to have a month impact in terms of recovery,” Miller said, adding that there are already shortages of electrical components for transformers which could hurt the construction industry. On the bright side, he said, “Christmas time retail products are already here.”

Miller noted that imports were up in September and there were more comments by ISM member firms discussing labor actions, indicating services providers were trying to cope with more strike-prone unions in the U.S. and Canada.

Timothy Fiore, the ISM manufacturing chief, told reporters Tuesday that the main gateway for the transpacific shipping ferrying goods from Asia – the world’s production hub – is on the West coast, downplaying the overall impact of the East coast industrial action on U.S. imports.

“Amid robust consumer spending, the large services sector continues to add backbone to the expansion, likely weighing toward a smaller quarter-point rate cut from the Fed in November,” Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Economics predicted in a report. “But there are still a lot of data to come and the dockworkers’ strike is a wildcard.”

Of the four sub-indexes that directly factor into the services PMI, the business activity/production index rose 6.6 points to 59.9 after falling 1.0 point to 53.3 in August. The new orders index also gained a solid 6.4 points to 59.4.

The employment index fell 2.1 points to 48.1 in September after slipping 0.9 point to 50.2 in August. It reflects a decrease in the number of firms hiring more after some of them had already expanded payrolls in July and August and thus saw balanced employment levels in September, Miller told reporters. It does not show a contracting trend, he said.

The supplier deliveries index – the only ISM index that is inversed – stood at 52.1, up 2.5 points from 49.6 in August, indicating slower deliveries after supply chains had recovered from the long lead times during the pandemic.

Miller said inflationary pressures have been easing, noting that a 2.1-point uptick to 59.4 in the prices paid index in September is not concerning given that the 12-month moving average is at 58.0, lower than 62.2 seen a year earlier and 79.8 two years ago.

Japan’s New PM Ishiba Forms Stability First Cabinet, Seeks Smooth Ties with Central Bank

By Max Sato

(MaceNews) – Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is seeking to establish close coordination with Bank of Japan policymakers as he was sworn in on Tuesday with an aging, male-dominated cabinet that still symbolizes stability among a largely conservative voting population.

Hailing from a political family, Ishiba, 67, vowed to provide a sense of security to the public and stability in Asia based on a 72-year-old security treaty with the U.S. He is basically inheriting his predecessor’s goal: to create more opportunities for youth, women and rural residents, ensure full support to households raising children and facilitate sustainable wage hikes.

Ishiba put together a cabinet of 19 ministers aged 51 to 75 years old (12 of them are in their 60s), with the average of 63.6, little changed from the government of Fumio Kishida who stepped aside last month over sluggish approval ratings after serving for three years. Only two of them are women, down by three from the previous administration.

Ishiba installed Katsunobu Kato, 68, as finance minister. He is known to have knowledge of economic and social security policies. Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, 67, is well-versed in security issues, having served as defense minister.

Gen Nakatani, a 66-year-old former Self-Defense Forces officer, has returned to the defense portfolio. He helped enact key security laws in 2015 that enabled Japan to exercise the right to collective self-defense.

Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa, 63, is a close aide to Ishiba. He told reporters on Tuesday that he would like Bank of Japan policymakers “to be cautious about deciding on (rate hikes) until we can confirm that Japan has moved out of deflation completely.” He also urged the central bank to avoid doing anything “that could chill the economy.”

Akazawa appears to have repeated what policy-setters at the Cabinet Office, to which he belongs, have been saying in the government’s monthly economic report: The government and the central bank must “completely overcome deflation and help guide the economy to move on to a new growth-oriented stage.” This shows government officials are still concerned about the downside risk that inflation may fail to be backed by sustained wage hikes.

In his inaugural news conference, Ishiba stressed that the government would “avoid discussing specifics” of what the BOJ should do to achieve 2% price stability with sustained wage hikes. But he also said, “I expect the basic tone of monetary policy to be maintained.”

That seems to be what BOJ policymakers are saying, too. Many of the bank’s board members are urging a cautious approach to normalizing the bank’s policy after years of keeping interest rates near zero, according to the summary of the bank’s Sept. 19-20 meeting.

“Japan’s economy is not in a situation where the bank may fall behind the curve if it does not raise the policy interest rate at a certain pace,” one member said, echoing public remarks by Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, a career central banker who was at the core of large-scale monetary easing.

“Therefore, the bank will not raise its policy interest rate when financial and capital markets are unstable.” Last month, the yen appreciated close to ¥140 to the dollar from around ¥147 on expectations of a series of BOJ rate hikes.

Another one agreed: “Since the upside risk to prices reflecting higher import prices has become smaller with the yen’s depreciation being retraced recently, the bank has enough time to assess the situation.”

A different member was more cautious: “The price stability target has not been achieved, and there remain uncertainties regarding economic and financial developments. In this situation, it is undesirable at this point to change the policy interest rate further, which might suggest a shift to full-fledged monetary tightening.”

Looking ahead, another member projected, “It seems that, if economic activity and prices remain on track, the bank can follow a path in which it raises the policy interest rate gradually so that the rate will be 1.0% in the second half of fiscal 2025 (ending March 31, 2026) at the earliest. Therefore, the bank should maintain the current policy interest rate at this meeting.”

At its Sept. 19-20 meeting, the bank’s nine-member board decided in a unanimous vote to maintain the target for the overnight interest rate at 0.25%. The bank’s assessment of the economy was unchanged since its view was expressed in the quarterly Outlook Report issued in July: It has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part, and that it is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate (estimated by the bank to be in the range of
0.5% to 1.0%).

Hit by high costs and labor shortages, Japan’s economy has been struggling, growing just 1.2% in fiscal 2023, below the official forecast of a 1.6% rise after expanding 1.6% in fiscal 2022, which was also under the official projection of 1.7%.

In July, the board decided in a 7 to 2 vote to raise the overnight interest rate target to 0.25% from a range of 0% to 0.1%, citing gradually rising inflation expectations among households and businesses and still high but slightly easing uncertainties for the economy. It also warned of upside risks to its GDP and CPI forecasts, specifically pointing out that the impact of currency market fluctuations on domestic prices is greater than in the past now that more firms are reflecting higher costs in prices and raising wages amid widespread labor shortages.

In March, the board decide in a majority vote to end its seven-year-old yield curve control framework and lift the minus 0.1% overnight interest rate target to a range of zero to 0.1% from minus 0.1%, its first rate hike in 17 years. Many board members believed that the risk of Japan’s economy slipping back into deflation had been reduced and inflation was likely to be led by sustained wage hikes, instead of a spike in import costs.

But the vote on the short-term rate target was 7 to 2. Board member Toyoaki Nakamura, a former Hitachi executive, voted against the rate hike, urging to wait until the bank can confirm smaller firms also have the ability to raise wages. Asahi Noguchi, a former economics professor, also dissented, arguing ending the negative rate and yield curve control at the same time could disrupt financial conditions.

US September ISM Manufacturing in Contraction for 6th Straight Month as Uncertainty over Fed Rate Policy, Election Weighs on Investment, Demand

–ISM Manufacturing Index Flat at 47.2, Just Under Median Forecast of 47.6
–ISM’s Fiore: October Report to Show Hurricane Helen’s Full Impact on Supply Chains, Output
–Fiore: Fed’s As-Expected September Rate Cut Likely to Aid New Orders in Early 2025
–Fiore: Whichever Party Wins, US Pressure on China to Continue on Trade Front

By Max Sato

(MaceNews) – U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth straight month in September on continued sluggish demand as firms remain reluctant to invest in capacity amid uncertainty over the pace of the Federal Reserve’s unwinding of its tight monetary policy and the outcome of the presidential election next month, the latest monthly data from the Institute for Supply Management showed Tuesday.

The sector index compiled by the ISM, which indicates general direction, was flat at 47.2 after edging up 0.4 point to 47.2 in August and slumping 1.7 points to an eight-month low of 46.8 in July. The latest reading came in slightly weaker than the median economist forecast of 47.6.

“Demand remains subdued, as companies showed an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to federal monetary policy – which the U.S. Federal Reserve addressed by the time of this report – and election uncertainty,” Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said in a statement. “Production execution stabilized in September. Suppliers continue to have capacity, with lead times improving and shortages reappearing.”

The full impact of the damage caused by Hurricane Helene – massive disruptions of supply chains and production of plastics and steel, particularly on the Gulf coast – is expected to show in the ISM’s October report, which is likely to be a “cloudy” one, Fiore told reporters.

He said the Fed rate cut in September is likely to boost the sector in early 2025. He has said the expected first rate cut in four years by the Fed in September was unlikely to push up new orders for several months. He repeated his conviction that the manufacturing sector is stuck in a temporary trough.

Fiore said a 13% share of the manufacturers surveyed by the ISM is showing concern over Fed rate policy in the latest monthly report, up from 5% five months ago. Asked about uncertainty over U.S. election results regarding trade rows with China, he said he does not see a huge difference between the Democrats and Republicans, because whichever party wins, the pressure on China is likely to continue.

Among the five subindexes that directly factor into the manufacturing PMI, the new orders index contracted in September for the sixth consecutive month, registering 46.1, an increase of 1.5 percentage points compared to August’s figure of 44.6. It hasn’t indicated consistent growth since a 24-month streak of expansion ended in May 2022. The production index rose 5.0 points to 49.8 after slipping to 44.8 in August to remain the lowest since 34.2 in May 2020, when world demand plunged at the initial phase of the pandemic.

The employment index stood at 43.9, down 2.1 points from 46.0 in August. “Respondents’ companies are continuing to reduce head counts through layoffs, attrition and hiring freezes,” Fiore said. Asked about Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s latest assessment that the labor market is slowing but still solid, Fiore replied that the Fed chief is talking about the entire US economy while the manufacturing sector, which represents only 10% of the economy, has seen sluggish employment.

The supplier deliveries index rose 1.7 points to 52.2. This is the only ISM subindex that is inversed; a reading of above 50 indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.

The manufacturing inventories index slipped back below the neutral line of 50, down 6.4 points at 43.9 after rising 5.8 to 50.3 in August, when it popped into expansion territory for the first time in 19 months. Fiore described the latest move as “cleanup.”

Among other subindexes, the prices paid index was at 48.3, down 5.7 points from the August reading of 54.0, thanks to less volatile commodity prices. Petroleum-derived products are showing weakness, aluminum is indicating slowing growth, corrugate and ocean freight are continuing growth and steel and steel products prices are easing. Fiore called the index’s recent range of 48 to 52 “a good stable level.”

MORE NEWS

CONTACT US/SALES

President, Mace News:

tony@macenews.com


Washington Bureau Chief:

denny@macenews.com


SUBSCRIPTIONS

Contact Mace News President
Tony Mace tony@macenews.com 
to find a customer- and markets-oriented brand of news coverage with a level of individualized service unique to the industry. A market participant told us he believes he has his own White House correspondent as Mace News provides breaking news and/or audio feeds, stories, savvy analysis, photos and headlines delivered how you want them. And more. And this is important because you won’t get it anywhere else. That’s MICRONEWS. We know how important to you are the short advisories on what’s coming up, whether briefings, statements, unexpected changes in schedules and calendars and anything else that piques our interest.

No matter the area being covered, the reporter is always only a telephone call or message away. We check with you frequently to see how we can improve. Have a question, need to be briefed via video or audio-only on a topic’s state of play, keep us on speed dial. See the list of interest areas we cover elsewhere
on this site.

You can have two weeks reduced price no-obligation trial for $199. No self-renewing contracts. Suspend, renew coverage at any time. Stay with a topic like trade while its hot and suspend coverage or switch coverage areas when it’s not. We serve customers one by one 24/7.

Tony Mace was the top editorial executive for Market News International for two decades. 

Washington Bureau Chief Denny Gulino had the same title at Market News for 18 years. 

Similar experience undergirds our service in Ottawa, London, Brussels and in Asia.

 

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