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Contact Mace News President
Tony Mace tony@macenews.com 
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Tony Mace was the top editorial executive for Market News
International for two decades. 

Washington Bureau Chief Denny Gulino had the same title at Market News for 18 years. 

Similar experience undergirds our service in Ottawa, London, Brussels and in Asia. 

 

CONTRIBUTORS

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Tony Mace

President
Mace News

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Denny Gulino

D.C. Bureau Chief
Mace News

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Steven Beckner

Federal Reserve
Mace News

Picture of Vicki Schmelzer

Vicki Schmelzer

Reporter and expert on the currency market.
Mace News

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Suzanne Cosgrove

Reporter and expert on derivatives and fixed income markets.
Mace News

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Laurie Laird

Financial Journalist
Mace News

Picture of Max Sato

Max Sato

Reporter, economic and political news.
Japan and Canada
Mace News

FRONT PAGE

Fed Officials Taking Patient, Measured Approach to Further Rate Cuts

By Steven K. Beckner

(MaceNews) – After getting off to an aggressive, though belated, start on monetary easing, Federal Reserve officials seem inclined to take a more measured approach going forward.

Policymakers who have spoken over the past week or so have expressed a clear willingness to cut the federal funds rate further from what they regard as a still “restrictive” stance. But there does not appear to be much eagerness to keep taking large bites out of the remaining monetary restraint.

As a group, they seem to want to tailor future rate adjustments depending on what the incoming data on inflation, employment and demand for goods and services say about the balance of risks to the economy. Officials have often said policy is “not on a preset course” in the past, and they are saying it again now, but this time they really seem to mean it.

Unlike previous easing or tightening cycles, when rate moves were sometimes made on a well telegraphed schedule, rate cuts may be much less predictable, at least in the early going.

Since the Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee slashed the funds rate by 50 basis points on Sept. 18, one policymaker, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic, even said he is prepared to “skip” the Nov.6-7 FOMC meeting before cutting rates again.

Aiding this cautious approach is a shared belief that the economy is in “a good place” despite rising unemployment. With inflation having moved closer to the Fed’s 2% target (but still above it) and with the economy still close to full employment, there seems to be no urgency to change monetary policy at a rapid pace.

Though some financial market participants had called for a more modest 25 basis point rate cut, the FOMC decided to reduce the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a target range of 4.75% to 5.00% in mid-September after leaving it unchanged since last July.

In a rare move, Governor Michelle Bowman dissented in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut, later explaining that she perceived a “risk that the Committee’s larger policy action could be interpreted as a premature declaration of victory on our price stability mandate.”

However, there had been those who had wanted to start cutting rates in July, and subsequent weaker employment data seems to have added to pressure on the FOMC to cut rates by the larger amount in September to make up for the earlier inaction.

In their revised quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, the 19 FOMC participants projected the funds rate will end 2024 at a median 4.4%, implying 50 basis points of further reductions to a target range of 4.25% to 4.5% over the final two meetings of the year.

The officials projected the funds rate will fall to a median 3.4% by the end of 2025 (a range of 3.25% to 3.5%), and to 2.9% by the end of 2026 (a range of 2.75% to 3.0%). The latter rate coincides with the FOMC’s upwardly revised estimate of the “longer run” funds rate.

The distribution of projections in the FOMC’s “dot plot” showed considerable division among officials. While nine favored cutting the funds rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5% by the end of 2024, seven favored cutting it to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%.

Minutes of the September meeting, released last week, confirmed such divisions, making the path forward for monetary policy somewhat uncertain and unpredictable. They say that “almost all” agreed that lower employment was a bigger risk than higher inflation, and “almost all” believed that “recalibrating” the funds rate made sense.

In another even split, “some” warned that removing policy restraint “too late or too little could risk unduly weakening economic activity and employment,” while “some” believed “the level of the longer-term neutral rate of interest complicated the assessment of the degree of restrictiveness of policy and, in their view, made it appropriate to reduce policy restraint gradually.”

“Several” said that “reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could risk a stalling or a reversal of the progress on inflation.”

Chair Jerome Powell has set the tone for commentary by his colleagues since the FOMC made the first rate cut since 2020.

In a Sept. 30 speech to the National Association for Business Economics, he said the FOMC was “not in any hurry” to cut rates but would ease as much as necessary to prevent undue economic “pain” while striving to keep reducing the inflation rate to t he Fed’s 2% target.

Powell said the 50 basis point rate cut “reflects our growing confidence that, with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor market can be maintained in an environment of moderate economic growth and inflation moving sustainably down to our objective.,”

While calling both the economy and the labor market “solid,” Powell said, “labor market conditions have clearly cooled over the past year…..We do not believe that we need to see further cooling in labor market conditions to achieve 2% inflation.”

What’s more, “broader economic conditions also set the table for further disinflation,” he said. “The labor market is now roughly in balance.”

Without using the words “soft landing,” but told the NABE the FOMC’s “goal all along has been to restore price stability without the kind of painful rise in unemployment that has frequently accompanied efforts to bring down high inflation.” And he added, “We have made a good deal of progress toward that outcome.”

Powell acknowledged the FOMC has been slow to cut rates, but denied it was “behind the curve” and maintained “that patient approach has paid dividends: Inflation is now much closer to our 2% objective. Today, we see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as roughly in balance.”

With inflation down and unemployment up, “it was time for a recalibration of our policy stance to reflect progress toward our goals as well as the changed balance of risks…,” he said. “(O)ur decision to reduce our policy rate by 50 basis points reflects our growing confidence that, with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate economic growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2%.”

Powell said, “if the economy evolves broadly as expected, policy will move over time toward a more neutral stance.”

But, as he has often done, the Fed chief stressed “we are not on any preset course. The risks are two-sided, and we will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.”

Powell said the FOMC will be guided by the data. “If the economy slows more, we will cut faster. If it slows less, we will cut slower.”

“It’s not something we need to go fast on,” he said, adding, “we will do what it takes in terms of the speed at which we move .…”

Since Powell spoke, a range of other Fed officials have been certain about only one thing: further rate cuts are coming. But as to the timetable, they have been ambiguous, if not cryptic.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said he supported the Sept. 18 rate cut because “monetary policy was and remains moderately restrictive for an economy that
appears close to equilibrium with respect to inflation and employment. The improved outlook
for inflation and cooling of the labor market that occurred over the summer gave me greater
confidence in achieving our dual mandate objectives.”

“I believe it will likely be appropriate to further reduce the target range for the federal funds rate
over time toward a neutral posture, with the size and timing of reductions depending on
incoming data, the evolving outlook and the forward-looking balance of risks around this
outlook,” he continued.

But as for the extent and timing of rate cuts, Musalem resorted to a set of “alternative scenarios” – a popular approach at the U.S. central bank these days.

He said one possibility is that inflation could cease falling toward 2% or even move higher,
perhaps because the economy “responds more vigorously than expected to lower interest rates and easier financial conditions….”

“Should such a scenario arise, with demand increasing at a faster pace than supply, it would be appropriate to maintain a restrictive policy stance with fewer, if any, reductions in the policy rate until such time as inflation does continue to converge,” Musalem told the Money Marketeers of New York University.

Because of that possibility, he said “it is appropriate to withdraw monetary restraint at a pace and magnitude that allow time to evaluate the effects of policy easing.”

In another scenario presented by Musalem, “the labor market softens by more than expected while inflation remains on the path to 2% or falls below it.”

“If that situation were to arise, then it would be appropriate to move the policy rate down more quickly and by a greater amount than my baseline projection,” he said.

Musalem cautioned that “both easing too much too soon, and easing too little too late, can produce costly outcomes,” but he added, “I view the costs of easing too much too soon as greater than the costs of easing too little too late.”

Fed Governor Adriana Kugler sounded somewhat more dovish in a conference at the European Central Bank last Tuesday, saying she “strongly supported” the recent FOMC action because “the combination of significant ongoing progress in reducing inflation and a cooling in the labor market means that the time has come to begin easing monetary policy.”

“Looking ahead, while I believe the focus should remain on continuing to bring inflation to 2%, I support shifting attention to the maximum-employment side of the FOMC’s dual mandate as well,” she continued. “The labor market remains resilient, but I support a balanced approach to the FOMC’s dual mandate so we can continue making progress on inflation while avoiding an undesirable slowdown in employment growth and economic expansion.

“If progress on inflation continues as I expect, I will support additional cuts in the federal funds rate to move toward a more neutral policy stance over time,” Kugler added.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said, “Recent developments have increased my confidence that inflation will return to the (FOMC’s) 2% target in a timely way – and, crucially, amid a healthy labor market.”

“Looking ahead, preserving the current favorable economic conditions will require
adjusting the stance of monetary policy, so as not to place unnecessary restraint on demand,” she explained. “A careful, data-based approach to policy normalization will be appropriate as we balance two-sided risks and remain highly attentive to both parts of our Congressional mandate – price stability and maximum employment. “

Collins was apprehensive that “with the labor market cooling, and economic growth reverting to a more normal pace, the economy is somewhat more vulnerable to adverse shocks. My confidence in the disinflation trajectory has increased – but so have the risks of the economy slowing beyond what is needed to restore price stability.”

For that reason, she said, the FOMC need to begin “the process of normalizing the policy stance.”

Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson justified the 50 basis point rate cut by saying “the balance of risks to our two mandates has changed—as risks to inflation have diminished and risks to employment have risen, these risks have been brought roughly into balance.”

“The FOMC has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2% goal,” he said, adding that the rate cut was needed “to maintain the strength of the labor market.”

Looking ahead, Jefferson vowed to “carefully watch incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks when considering additional adjustments to the federal funds target range…”

Usually hawkish Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan backed the 50 basis point rate cut, but cited a number of economic risks before saying the FOMC should not rush to reduce the fed funds target to a “normal” or “neutral” level but rather should proceed gradually while monitoring the behavior of financial conditions, consumption, wages and prices.”

Logan said “a related upside risk to inflation stems from uncertainty regarding what the “neutral” level of the federal funds rate even is.” Indeed, she said there is reason to believe “the neutral rate may be higher than before the pandemic.”

Logan indicated she’s prepared to support further rate cuts, but in a cautious way: “If the economy evolves as I currently expect, a strategy of gradually lowering the policy rate toward a more normal or neutral level can help manage the risks and achieve our mandated goals.”

“It should go without saying, though, that the future is uncertain,” she continued. “Any number of shocks could influence what that path to normal will look like, how fast policy should move and where rates should settle….”

New York Fed President John Williams took his usual prudent tack. “Looking ahead, based on my current forecast for the economy, I expect that it will be appropriate to continue the process of moving the stance of monetary policy to a more neutral setting over time.”

The FOMC vice chair said “the timing and pace of future adjustments to interest rates will be based on the evolution of the data, the economic outlook, and the risks to achieving our goals. We will continue to be data-dependent and attuned to the evolution of economic conditions in making our decisions.”

For Governor Christopher Waller, it’s a matter of preserving the gains the Fed has made.
“With the labor market in rough balance, employment near its maximum level, and inflation generally running close to our target over the past several months, I want to do what I can as a policymaker to keep the economy on this path.”

“For me, the central question is how much and how fast to reduce the target for the federal funds rate, which I believe is currently set at a restrictive level,” he said.

Waller also presented alternative monetary policy scenarios.

In his first scenario, in which “overall strong economic developments” continue, inflation nears target and the unemployment rate moves up “only slightly,” he said “we can proceed with moving policy toward a neutral stance at a deliberate pace….”

“Another scenario, less likely in light of recent data, is that inflation falls materially below 2% for some time, and/or the labor market significantly deteriorates,” Waller continued. “The message here is that demand is falling, the FOMC may suddenly be behind the curve, and that message would argue for moving to neutral more quickly by front-loading cuts to the policy rate.”

In Waller’s third scenario, inflation “unexpectedly escalates either because of stronger-than-expected consumer demand or wage pressure, or because of some shock to supply that pushes up inflation….. In this circumstance, as long as the labor market isn’t deteriorating, we can pause rate cuts until progress resumes and uncertainty diminishes.”

He added, “Whatever happens in the near term, my baseline still calls for reducing the policy rate gradually over the next year.:”

Finally, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, spoke of the need to catch up to disinflation to prevent inadvertent tightening.

She said the FOMC needed to start cutting the funds rate because, with each month of disinflation, “policy became tighter in real terms. So, the FOMC needed to recalibrate…..”

“I see this recalibration as “right-sizing,” recognizing the progress we’ve made and loosening the policy reins a bit, but not letting go,” Daly said. “Even with this adjustment, policy remains restrictive, exerting additional downward pressure on inflation to ensure it reaches 2 percent.:”

Daly said “making these adjustments to match the economy we have is crucial. It prevents the mistake of over-tightening and ensures we are supporting both of our goals.”

“Continued progress is not guaranteed,” she went on. “ We must stay vigilant and be intentional, continually assessing the economy and balancing both of our mandated objectives: fully delivering on 2 percent inflation while ensuring that the labor market remains in line with full employment. That is a soft landing.”

BofA Global Research Fund Manager Survey: Global Investors More Bullish on Equities as Growth Expectations Improve

–Largest Jump in Global Equity Allocation Since June 2020
By Vicki Schmelzer

NEW YORK (MaceNews) – Global investors became more bullish toward equities in October, driven by an improved outlook for world growth, according to BofA Global Research’s monthly fund manager survey released Tuesday.
Positive views about the U.S. and Chinese economies fueled this change in growth sentiment, which in turn prompted the largest jump in global equity allocation since June 2020, the survey noted.
In October, a net 10% of investors looked for weaker economic growth in the next 12 months. This compared to a net 42% looking for weaker growth last month and a net 47% looking for weaker growth in August. As a reminder, in April 2024, a net 11% of those polled looked for stronger world growth in the coming year.
This shift in growth sentiment follows a 50-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, a surprising 250,000 rise in U.S. non-farm payrolls and moves by China’s central bank to stimulate its economy, the survey said.
In addition, “asset prices are driving economic growth expectations higher,” BofA Global said.
This month, a net 76% of managers looked for a soft landing in the global economy, little changed from a net 79% expecting a soft landing in September.
More negative inflation views failed to dent risk sentiment.
A net 44% of managers looked for lower CPI in the coming months, well down from a net 67% and a net 76% looking for lower inflation in September and August respectively.
On China’s growth outlook after recent stimulus measures were announced, a net 48% of those polled looked for a stronger economy in the next 12 months. This is a sharp contrast to September, when a net 18% looked for a weaker Chinese economy, the survey said.
Of the impact of China’s stimulus, a net 47% of managers saw Emerging Market Equities and a net 41% of managers saw “Commodities” as the “biggest winners,” while “Government Bonds” (net 41%) and “Japanese equities” (net 33%) were deemed the “biggest losers.”
In terms of asset allocation, global investors made a nosedive into equities, real estate and commodities while exiting cash and bonds.
In October, a net 31% of portfolio managers were overweight global equities, well up from September and August, when a net 11% of managers were overweight equities. This was the biggest one-month jump in equity holdings since June 2020, BoA Global said.
In a flip-flop, a net 15% of those polled this month were underweight bonds, a stark contrast to a net 11% overweight in September and a net 8% overweight in August.
Allocation to real estate improved to a net 3% underweight in October, compared to a net 17% underweight in September and a net 28% underweight in August.
This month, commodity holdings stood at a net 1% overweight versus a net 11% underweight in September and a net 7% underweight in August.
Average cash balances slipped to 3.9% in October, down from 4.2% in September and 4.3% in August.
With cash levels slipping below 4.0%, “the BofA Global FMS Cash Rule triggered its first contrarian ‘sell’ signal since Jun’24,” the survey said.
“Since 2011, there have been 11 prior ‘sell’ signals which saw global equity (ACWI) returns of -2.5% in the 1 month after and -0.8% in the 3 months after the ‘sell’ signal was triggered,” BoA Global noted.
Allocation to cash fell to a net 4% underweight this month, down from a net 11% overweight in September and compared to a net 6% overweight in August.
In equity allocation this month, emerging markets saw larger inflows and eurozone and UK stocks saw larger outflows, while other regions were little changed.
Allocation to U.S. equities rose to a net 10% overweight in October, from to a net 8% overweight in September and were nearly back at August levels (net 11% overweight).
Asked about the prospects of a “sweep” i.e. the same party winning the White House and Congress,” in October a net 47% of those polled viewed the outcome as negative for the S&P 500, while 28% viewed it as a positive. In contrast, last month, a net 43% viewed a “sweep” as negative for stock and 33% viewed it as positive.
On the greenback, this month a net 43% of those polled looked for a higher U.S. dollar in the event of a “sweep,” while a net 35% looked for the dollar to move lower.
In October, a net 3% of portfolio managers were underweight eurozone stocks, compared to a net 8% overweight in September and a net 4% overweight in August.
Allocation to global emerging markets (GEM) rose to a net 21% overweight this month, compared to a net 1% overweight in September and a net 3% overweight in August.
This month, allocation to Japanese equities edged down to a net 2% underweight from a net 1% underweight in September, while UK allocation fell to a net 6% underweight from a net 2% overweight in September.
In October, the biggest “tail risks” feared by portfolio managers were: “Geopolitical conflict” (33% of those polled), “Global inflation accelerates” (26%), “US Recession” (19%), “US election ‘sweep’” (14%) and “Systemic credit event” (5%).
In September, the biggest “tail risks” were” “U.S. recession (40% of those polled), “Geopolitical conflict” (19%), “Inflation accelerates” (18%), “Systemic credit event” (8%), “US election ‘sweep’” (6%) and “AI bubble” (5%).
In October, the top three “most crowded” trades were deemed “Long Magnificent 7 stocks” (43% of those polled), “Long Gold” (17%) and “Long Chinese equities” (14%). The shift in views on Chinese equities was marked.
In September, the top three “most crowded” trades were “Long Magnificent 7 stocks” (46% of those polled), “Short China equities” (19%) and “Long Gold” (16%).
Note: the term “Magnificent Seven” was coined by Bank of America’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett, referring to a basket of the seven major tech stocks: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, Alphabet, Tesla and Meta.
An overall total of 231 panelists, with $574 billion in assets under management, participated in the BofA Global Research fund manager survey, taken October 4 to October 10, 2024. “195 participants with $503bn AUM responded to the Global FMS questions and 128 participants with $273bn AUM responded to the Regional FMS questions,” BofA Global said.
Contact this reporter: vicki@macenews.com

ISM: US Services Sector Expands for 3rd Straight Month in September on Solid Output, New Orders

–ISM Services Index at 54.9 Vs. 51.5 in August, Well Above Median Forecast 51.5
–ISM’s Miller: Slowe Employment Follows Some Active Hiring in Summer
–Miller: Inflationary Trend Moderating Despite Uptick in September
–Fed Rate Cuts to Underpin Sector Toward Yearend, Port Strikes Wild Card

By Max Sato

(MaceNews) – Business activity in the U.S. services sector accelerated in September for a third consecutive month of expansion thanks to stronger production and new orders while employment slowed but remained stable and inflationary pressures moderated, according to the latest survey by the Institute for Supply Management released Thursday.

The ISM index, which shows the directional change of economic activity, rose 3.4 percentage points to 54.9 in September, reaching the highest since 55.0 in February 2023 and coming in stronger than the consensus call of no change at 51.5. It followed a slight 0.1-point rise to 51.5 in August, a 5.1-point rebound to 52.4 in July from a 6.8-point dip to 47.3 in June, which was the lowest level since 45.4 in May 2020.

“The stronger growth indicated by the index data was generally supported by panelists’ comments; however, concerns over political uncertainty are more prevalent than last month,” Steve Miller, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, said in a statement. “Pricing of supplies remains an issue with supply chains continuing to stabilize; one respondent voiced concern over potential port labor issues. The interest-rate cut was welcomed; however, labor costs and availability continue to be a concern across most industries.”

The services sector continues to outperform manufacturing industries, which in Tuesday’s report showed contraction for the sixth straight month in September on continued sluggish demand as firms remain reluctant to invest in capacity amid uncertainty over the pace of the Federal Reserve’s unwinding of its tight monetary policy and the outcome of the presidential election next month.

Looking ahead, Miller said, interest rates on auto loans and mortgage rates have already come down ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut in September and more rate reductions projected by Fed policymakers should support the sector toward yearend after an historically weak third quarter.

“The wild card right now is how long the port strikes last,” Miller said. “Inventories are up, which is a good thing … and trucking companies are already positioning capacity out of the west coast.”

Sector inventories are likely to be depleted in two weeks if the dock workers continue to walk off the job, Miller estimates. East and Gulf coast cargo-handlers launched their first large-scale strike in nearly 50 years this week, demanding higher wages and job security against automation.

“What I’ve been hearing (is that) a week-long strike is going to have a month impact in terms of recovery,” Miller said, adding that there are already shortages of electrical components for transformers which could hurt the construction industry. On the bright side, he said, “Christmas time retail products are already here.”

Miller noted that imports were up in September and there were more comments by ISM member firms discussing labor actions, indicating services providers were trying to cope with more strike-prone unions in the U.S. and Canada.

Timothy Fiore, the ISM manufacturing chief, told reporters Tuesday that the main gateway for the transpacific shipping ferrying goods from Asia – the world’s production hub – is on the West coast, downplaying the overall impact of the East coast industrial action on U.S. imports.

“Amid robust consumer spending, the large services sector continues to add backbone to the expansion, likely weighing toward a smaller quarter-point rate cut from the Fed in November,” Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Economics predicted in a report. “But there are still a lot of data to come and the dockworkers’ strike is a wildcard.”

Of the four sub-indexes that directly factor into the services PMI, the business activity/production index rose 6.6 points to 59.9 after falling 1.0 point to 53.3 in August. The new orders index also gained a solid 6.4 points to 59.4.

The employment index fell 2.1 points to 48.1 in September after slipping 0.9 point to 50.2 in August. It reflects a decrease in the number of firms hiring more after some of them had already expanded payrolls in July and August and thus saw balanced employment levels in September, Miller told reporters. It does not show a contracting trend, he said.

The supplier deliveries index – the only ISM index that is inversed – stood at 52.1, up 2.5 points from 49.6 in August, indicating slower deliveries after supply chains had recovered from the long lead times during the pandemic.

Miller said inflationary pressures have been easing, noting that a 2.1-point uptick to 59.4 in the prices paid index in September is not concerning given that the 12-month moving average is at 58.0, lower than 62.2 seen a year earlier and 79.8 two years ago.

MORE NEWS

CONTACT US/SALES

President, Mace News:

tony@macenews.com


Washington Bureau Chief:

denny@macenews.com


SUBSCRIPTIONS

Contact Mace News President
Tony Mace tony@macenews.com 
to find a customer- and markets-oriented brand of news coverage with a level of individualized service unique to the industry. A market participant told us he believes he has his own White House correspondent as Mace News provides breaking news and/or audio feeds, stories, savvy analysis, photos and headlines delivered how you want them. And more. And this is important because you won’t get it anywhere else. That’s MICRONEWS. We know how important to you are the short advisories on what’s coming up, whether briefings, statements, unexpected changes in schedules and calendars and anything else that piques our interest.

No matter the area being covered, the reporter is always only a telephone call or message away. We check with you frequently to see how we can improve. Have a question, need to be briefed via video or audio-only on a topic’s state of play, keep us on speed dial. See the list of interest areas we cover elsewhere
on this site.

You can have two weeks reduced price no-obligation trial for $199. No self-renewing contracts. Suspend, renew coverage at any time. Stay with a topic like trade while its hot and suspend coverage or switch coverage areas when it’s not. We serve customers one by one 24/7.

Tony Mace was the top editorial executive for Market News International for two decades. 

Washington Bureau Chief Denny Gulino had the same title at Market News for 18 years. 

Similar experience undergirds our service in Ottawa, London, Brussels and in Asia.

 

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