By Max Sato
(MaceNews) – The Bank of Canada is widely expected on Wednesday to lower its policy interest rate — the target for overnight lending rates — by 25 basis points to 4.75% to help reduce high mortgage rates and other borrowing costs in light of easing inflation and slower economic growth, but some economists expect the bank to be more cautious and wait until July.
In its previous policy announcement on April 10, the bank maintained the key rate at 5% for the sixth straight meeting, with bank officials saying they needed to see clearer evidence that inflation was on its way down to their 2% target before lowering the rate from the restrictive level.
Since then, consumer inflation first rose to 2.9% in March from 2.8% in February and then declined to a three-year low of 2.7% in April (vs. 2.2% in March 2021), making steady progress from last summer’s peak of 4% and the recent high of 8.1% hit in June 2022.
Two of the BoC’s core inflation measures have also shown improvement. The year-on-year increase in the CPI trim has eased to 2.9% in April after staying at 3.2% in March while the annual rate of the CPI median slowed further to 2.6% in April from 2.9% in March and 3.1% in February. Those measures strip out whatever is volatile at the time.
The latest GDP data released Friday showed the economy cooled off in March, being flat on the month, after making a robust start to the year with a 0.5% jump in January. In the first quarter, the real gross domestic product grew 0.4% on quarter, or an annualized 1.7%, below the consensus forecast of a 2.3% rise and the BoC’s April projection of 2.8%. The annualized growth rate in the previous quarter was revised down to a slight 0.1% from 1.0%.
The January-March quarter growth was led by higher household spending on services (telecommunications, rent and air transport) while a slower inventory buildup moderated overall growth, which indicates that the details are not so weak as the headline numbers suggest. Yet Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Financial Group, pointed to the bigger picture that “Canada’s economy has expanded by a meagre 0.5% in the past year.”
“While the downside surprise in Q1 was driven by a big cut in business inventories, the reality is that underlying growth remains well short of potential, and slack is building for the overall economy,” Porter wrote in a report after the GDP release. “For the Bank of Canada, we believe the main message is that the output gap is widening, as reinforced by a less-tight job market, modestly increasing the chances of a rate cut next week (June 5).”
“There are respectable arguments on both sides of the decision, but we believe the balance of evidence points to a cut–we’ve been calling for a June cut since late last year, and will stand by that call,” he said.
TD Economics noted that while inflation dynamics have justified rate cuts, the BoC has not signaled any intention to make a move. TD’s senior economist James Orlando wrote that the bank has communicated its intentions to make changes to monetary policy ahead of an actual move (a 25-basis point hike in June 2023 was a surprise for many forecasters, though).
“If it wants to keep up this effort of transparency and forward guidance, we expect the BoC will hold rates steady next week (June 5) and use the meeting to tee-up a rate cut in July.” But he also warned that the bank “could go either way with this one.”
During his news conference on April 10, Governor Tiff Macklem indicated that he and his colleagues on Governing Council had not lowered their guard on inflation.
“We don’t want to leave monetary policy this restrictive longer than we need to. But if we lower our policy interest rate too early or cut too fast, we could jeopardize the progress we’ve made bringing inflation down,” he said.
Asked if it is possible for the bank to start cutting rates in June, Macklem replied, “Yes, it’s within the realm of possibilities. I think we’ve been clear. We are encouraged by what we’ve seen since January.”
“If we look at our indicators, they are not all progressing at the same speed but they’ve all been moving in the right direction,” he said, but added, “We need to see that progress continue.”
Canada’s volatile employment data showed job creation jumped 90,400 in April after dipping 2,200 in March. The median forecast for Friday’s May report is a 15,000 increase. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.1% in April after rising to the level in March from 5.8% in February. An encouraging sign for BoC policymakers is that the year-on-year increase in average hourly wages eased to 4.7% in April from 5.1% in March, the second slowest reading of the past year.