By Max Sato
(MaceNews) – Talk of snap elections is intensifying around Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi as she ponders the logical option to call a snap election to lift her scandal-tainted conservative Liberal Democratic Party in the lower house before the honeymoon period wanes.
The Yomiuri Shimbun reported late on Friday that Takaichi is “carefully considering” dissolving the House of Representative at the beginning of the 150-day ordinary Diet session slated for Jan. 23, quoting an unnamed LDP source.
If she decides to call general elections with that timing, the voting would take place on either Feb. 8 or Feb. 15, the conservative newspaper said. Japanese elections are traditionally held on Sundays.
Hours later, the Mainichi Shimbun daily followed up, reporting that “an idea of dissolving the lower house at the start of the ordinary session has surfaced within the administration,” without quoting any sources.
Calling a snap election now or not, it would be still a gamble for Takaichi, who took office in late October.
Her honeymoon period with voters seems to be lingering with high approval ratings that range from 67% to 75% in recent polls by major news media but some of those figures have drifted lower as people are still unhappy with the LDP leadership’s reluctance to ban donations from businesses, which is at the core of the long-lasting money scandals that engulfed all major ruling party factions.
Takaichi’s predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, stepped down to take the blame for leading the ruling coalition to crushing defeats in general elections.
The LDP alone has only 199 seats in the House of Representatives, well short of a simple majority of 233. Japan Innovation Party (Ishin no Kai), a small opposition party with 34 seats in the chamber, agreed to form a coalition late last year on condition that the LDP would work with it to reduce the number of lawmakers.
That has given the Takaichi administration a temporary relief but Ishin no Kai, which itself has seen its popularly decline in recent elections, remains cautious, opting out of sending any of its members to the cabinet. Political reform plans by the two parties are also unclear as to what they could achieve. Ishin has watered down its demand to ban business donations to political parties since it entered the coalition.
While Takaichi enjoys high approval ratings arising from hopes that she may achieve something, liberal voters are uneasy about her right-wing view of Japan’s wartime aggression. Takaichi is also opposed to same-sex marriage and allowing women to keep their maiden names when they register marriage.
Critics also point to Takaichi’s recent diplomatic blunder. In parliamentary debate in November, she was asked how Japan would respond if there is an “emergency” in and around Taiwan, such as China tries to annex the island by force or block the Taiwan Strait. “If it involves the use of warships and the exercise of force, it would, by any measure, constitute a survival-threatening situation (for Japan),” she said, referring to the condition under which Japan could use its self-defense forces to support its allies including the United States without violating the Japanese law.
Her remarks triggered a sharp reaction from Beijing, which has urged Chinese to boycott visits to Japan and has banned export to Japan of dual-use items – products that have military and civilian use (possibly including drones and navigation systems). Political analysts fear the controversy gives China more incentive to take military action on Taiwan.
China’s move to ban those exports could hurt Japan’s wobbly economic recovery under elevated costs of living. The yen remains weak, keeping import costs high. The dollar firmed slightly to just above Y158 after the Yomiuri report but quickly gave up its gain. After-hours Nikkei stock futures gained on the report on hopes that an election win by the LDP would reinforce Takaichi’s large fiscal spending plans.