Friday, Jan. 30, 2026
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1850 EST Thursday, Jan. 29) The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases December industrial production, outlook for January and February.
Mace News median: -0.4% m/m (range: -1.5% to +0.3%) vs. Nov. revised down to -2.7% from -2.6%; +2.3 y/y (range: +1.2% to +3.0%) vs. Nov. revised down to -2.2% from -2.1%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s industrial output is seen falling for a second straight month in December, down 0.4% on the month after declining 2.7% (revised from down 2.6%) in November. The November drop was larger than expected, as production declines in industries including information and communications machinery, automobiles and metal products dragged down overall output.
The December forecast broadly aligns with projections released last month by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which said output would slip 0.6% during the month before rebounding sharply by 8.0% in January. The ministry maintained its long-held assessment that industrial output is “taking one step forward and one step back.”
Trade figures released by the Ministry of Finance for December showed that the negative impact of Trump’s tariff policy continued to weigh on auto production, as exports to the U.S. declined, dragging on overall output. Still, the impact on other industries remained limited, helping keep underlying output conditions relatively firm. On a year-on-year basis, December output is expected to rise 2.3% after falling 2.2% (revised from down 2.1%) in November.