–Updates first four paragraphs with final projections by news media
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling coalition scored a landslide victory in Sunday’s lower house election, with results pointing to an overwhelming win for the Liberal Democratic Party that could allow it to govern alone and potentially secure a supermajority, easing the path for expansionary fiscal policies and other policy priorities.
The LDP set a postwar record, winning the largest number of seats ever secured by a single party in a lower house election. The party captured 316 seats, well above the 233 needed for a majority in the 465-seat chamber and exceeding the two-thirds threshold of 310 seats. The result gives the LDP the ability to override the upper house on legislation and initiate procedures to revise the constitution even without support from its junior coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin).
For the LDP, the outcome marks a sharp rebound from its pre-election standing of just 198 seats. Ishin won 36 seats, bringing the ruling bloc’s combined total to 352 and further expanding its dominance in the lower house.
By contrast, the newly formed opposition group Centralist Reform Alliance (Chudo), an alliance between the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito, suffered a heavy setback, winning only 49 seats, down sharply from 172 before the election. Among other opposition parties, the Democratic Party for the People won 28 seats, Sanseito secured 15, Team Mirai took 11 and the Japanese Communist Party won four. Reiwa Shinsengumi and Tax Cuts Japan each won one seat, while four independents were elected.
LDP Secretary-General Shunichi Suzuki said the election results reflected public expectations for the policy agenda Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi intends to pursue. “Specifically, these include a responsible and proactive fiscal policy, as well as strengthening Japan’s defense capabilities and diplomatic capacity,” Suzuki, a former finance minister, said in an interview with the Nikkei group network TV Tokyo.
“Support was driven by the expectation that the LDP is the party that will carry these policies forward,” Suzuki said, adding that the party has received a strong political mandate.
On the issue of lowering the 10% sales tax, he said, “We would like to move forward with thorough discussions on our policy pledge regarding tax reductions on food and dining for two years.”
Positive Public Image
Rather than her policy agenda, including fiscal expansion and tax cuts, it was Takaichi’s positive public image that appeared to appeal most to younger voters and non-partisans in the election.
“This has very little to do with her policy agenda,” Hiroyuki Hayashi, a market economist and former managing director at Fukoku Capital Management, told Mace News before the results were announced on Sunday. “People supported Takaichi because of her fresh image and because she is Japan’s first female prime minister. That sets her apart from recent predecessors such as [Yoshihide] Suga, [Fumio] Kishida and [Shigeo] Ishiba, who were often seen as difficult to understand and typical of the LDP’s old image.”
“The younger generation, as well as voters who previously had little interest in politics, supported her on the belief that she would work hard to improve Japan,” Hayashi said. “It’s largely about the positive impression Takaichi has built in the few months since taking office.”
Since becoming prime minister in October, approval ratings for the Takaichi cabinet have remained consistently high, averaging in the upper 60% to low 70% range across multiple opinion polls by key domestic media. In the run-up to the election, support varied by polling organization, but major surveys generally placed approval between the high 50% and low 70%.
Against that backdrop, Takaichi dissolved the lower house at the start of the 150-day ordinary Diet session on Jan. 23, saying she needed to seek public approval for her policy agenda because she had not received a direct electoral mandate since taking office.
She also said the LDP plans a major policy shift in cooperation with Ishin and aims to secure sufficient parliamentary support to advance legislation.
Opposition parties criticized the timing of the dissolution, arguing there was no clear justification for calling an election while Japan faced persistent inflation and other policy challenges. Some also accused Takaichi of attempting to move past unresolved political funding scandals and lingering concerns over lawmakers’ ties to the Unification Church while public support remained high.
Facing Defining Test
Nevertheless, the election victory now places Takaichi at a defining moment, as voters and markets assess whether she can deliver on the policy agenda she outlined during the campaign. She now needs to prove her leadership by demonstrating whether she can execute her campaign pledges while keeping her approval ratings high.
The key question is whether Takaichi will move toward large-scale fiscal expansion. She is unlikely to abandon the banner of “responsible and proactive fiscal policy,” which was a central campaign theme. The emphasis on “responsible” is expected to remain, limiting the scope for fiscal measures that would significantly increase government bond issuance.
A key test will be the 10% consumption tax (8% for newspapers and foodstuffs excluding eating out and alcohol). While Takaichi largely avoided the issue during the election campaign, the LDP has pledged to consider setting the sales tax on food and beverages at zero for two years. Still, the funding source remains unclear. If a time-limited tax cut is financed through additional government bond issuance rather than spending cuts, concerns over fiscal expansion could intensify.