Wednesday, Feb. 18, 2026
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1850 EST Tuesday, Feb. 17) The Ministry of Finance releases January trade.
Mace News survey median: exports +11.9% y/y (range: +4.9% to +14.5%) vs. Dec. +5.1%; imports +3.1% y/y (range: -2.4% to +7.0%) vs. a revised +5.2% in December from +5.3; trade deficit ¥2,211.45 billion (range: a deficit of ¥2,461.70 billion to a deficit of ¥1,776.80 billion) vs. a revised ¥113.49 billion surplus in December; ¥2.74 trillion deficit in January 2025
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japanese export values are expected to grow for a fifth straight month in January, supported by increases in semiconductor-related electronic components, ships and nonferrous metals. Still, the country’s trade balance is seen slipping into deficit for the first time in three months.
Exports are projected to rise 11.9 percent from a year earlier in January, following a 5.1 percent increase in December. Export values may have risen in early to mid-January, as some shipments were likely front-loaded in Asia ahead of the Lunar New Year in February.
In December, exports rose for a fifth consecutive month to Europe and Asia and increased for the first time in two months to China. By contrast, exports to the U.S. fell 11.1 percent in December, led by declines in auto and auto-related parts amid the impact of Trump’s tariff policy.
Imports are also expected to rise for a fifth straight month, gaining about 3.1 percent on the year in January after a revised 5.2 percent increase in December. January’s import growth is seen driven by semiconductor-related electronic components, nonferrous metals and crude oil. Although crude oil import prices fell in early to mid-January, higher import volumes helped lift overall import values.
As a result, the customs-cleared trade balance is expected to swing into a deficit for the first time in three months, estimated at ¥2.21 trillion in January, following a revised surplus of ¥113.5 billion in December and a ¥2.74 trillion deficit in January 2025.