for release: Friday, Feb. 27, 2026 0830 JST (2330 GMT/1830 EST Thursday, Feb. 26) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases February Tokyo CPI.
Mace News survey median: total CPI +1.4% y/y (range: +1.2% to +1.5%) vs. Jan +1.5%; core CPI (ex-fresh food) +1.7% (range: +1.6% to +1.8%) vs. Jan +2.0%; core-core CPI (ex-fresh food, energy) +2.3% (range: +2.3% to +2.4%) vs. Jan +2.4%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Consumer inflation in Tokyo, a leading indicator of nationwide price trends, is expected to fall below the Bank of Japan’s closely watched 2% target in two of the key measures in February, driven mainly by government subsidies aimed at easing the burden of electricity and city gas charges.
In addition, slowing food and energy prices, along with softer retail prices at supermarkets and other stores, are seen putting downward pressure on Tokyo’s consumer price index for a fourth consecutive month in February.
As a result, the core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is forecast to rise 1.7% on the year in February, easing from 2.0% in January and marking the first drop below the 2 percent level since October 2024. That would also be the slowest increase since March 2022, when it rose 0.9%.
Elsewhere, the headline CPI is seen slowing to 1.4%, the lowest level in nearly four years, from 1.5% a month earlier. The core-core index, which excludes fresh food and energy, is expected to rise 2.3%, edging down from a 2.4% increase in January. All three measures have remained below 3% since June after retreating from earlier peaks.