Friday, Feb. 27, 2026
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1850 EST Thursday, Feb. 26) The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases January industrial production, outlook for February and March.
Mace News median: +5.3% m/m (range: +4.0% to +7.0%) vs. Dec. -0.1%; +5.2% y/y (range: +4.2% to +7.2%) vs. Dec. +2.6%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s industrial production is expected to rebound sharply on the month in January, marking the first increase in three months, as front-loaded activity ahead of the Lunar New Year prompted a surge in output.
January production is forecast to jump about 5.3 percent after edging down 0.1 percent in December. In December, the impact of stiff U.S. tariffs on automobiles and metals imposed in the fourth quarter of last year undermined exports and weighed on output, although the pace of decline was easing.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) also maintained its long-held assessment that industrial output is “taking one step forward and one step back” in December, a view it has kept since upgrading its outlook in July 2024.
This January rebound is also expected to be reflected in trade statistics released by the Ministry of Finance on Feb. 18, which showed export values posting a fifth straight year-on-year increase in January, rising a strong 16.8 percent, largely due to rush shipments ahead of the new year holidays.
On a year-on-year basis, January output is also expected to rise for a second straight month, up 5.2 percent after a 2.6 percent increase in December.
As holiday effects are seen as the key driver in January, attention should turn to METI’s production outlook for February and March.