0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Tuesday, March 17) The Ministry of Finance releases February trade.
Mace News median: exports +1.6% y/y (range: -3.5% to +4.0%) vs. January +16.8%; imports +12.5% y/y (range: +9.1% to +16.2%) vs. a revised -2.4% in January from -2.5%; trade deficit ¥516.95 billion (range: a deficit of ¥660.00 billion to a surplus of ¥49.80 billion) vs. a revised ¥1,163.53 billion deficit in January; ¥585.49 billion surplus in February 2025
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japanese export values are projected to increase for a sixth straight month in February but are expected to decelerate sharply from a month earlier, when rush shipments ahead of the Lunar New Year prompted unexpectedly robust trading activity. A sharp increase in imports is expected to push the country’s trade balance into a deficit for the second straight month.
In reaction to the sharp rise in the previous month and the fact that this year’s Lunar New Year holiday in mainland China lasted beyond mid-February — from Feb. 16 to 23 — trading activity with the world’s second-largest economy is expected to slow considerably during the month, leaving exports seen rising only 1.6% in February after surging 16.8% in January.
In January, exports were driven by computer chips, non-ferrous metals and plastics, largely in line with trends seen in recent months. Exports to Europe and Asia increased for a sixth straight month through January, while shipments to the United States fell for the second consecutive month, with automobile exports remaining sluggish amid stiff U.S. trade tariffs.
Japan’s exports of non-ferrous metals and semiconductor-related electronic components are expected to continue increasing in February, along with mineral fuels, while steel and chip-manufacturing equipment are expected to decline.
In contrast, imports are expected to jump 12.5% in February in reaction to a revised 2.4% decline a month earlier, following decreases for five straight months through January. Large increases in imports are expected in semiconductor-related electronic components, non-ferrous metals and mobile phones, while no major items are seen posting a significant decline during the month. Taking these moves into account, Japan’s customs-cleared trade balance is expected to post a deficit of ¥516.95 billion in February for the second consecutive month.