(Nationwide CPI) Tuesday, March 24, 2026
0830 JST (2330 GMT/1930 EDT Thursday, March 23) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases February CPI.
Mace News median: total CPI +1.5% y/y (range: +1.3% to +1.5%) vs. Jan +1.5%; core CPI (ex-fresh food) +1.7% y/y (range: +1.6% to +1.8%) vs. Jan +2.0%; core-core CPI (ex-fresh food, energy) +2.7% y/y (range +2.6% to +3.0%) vs. Jan +2.6%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s nationwide core consumer price index is expected to decelerate to its lowest level in nearly four years in February, slowing for the third straight month, driven by lower energy prices and the government’s measures to curb utility costs, in line with the trend seen in Tokyo late last month. Still, the underlying uptrend in consumer inflation remains intact amid continued strength in overall food prices, although they have shown signs of easing in recent months.
The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is seen rising 1.7% on the year in February after a 2.0% increase a month earlier. Core inflation is set to fall below the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) 2.0% target for the first time since March 2022, marking its lowest level in almost four years. This also represents a sharp slowdown from 3.0% recorded in October and November.
Two other key measures are expected to be little changed to slightly higher. Total CPI is projected to be unchanged, rising 1.5% on the year in February, the same pace as a month earlier. The core-core CPI, which excludes both fresh food and energy, is seen inching up to 2.7% from 2.6% in January.
The nationwide trend reflects developments in Tokyo, where core prices have been trending lower as energy costs are pushed down by renewed subsidies for electricity and natural gas in the first three months of the year, aimed at reducing heating costs. Energy prices had already declined in January after the government scrapped a decades-old gasoline surcharge at the end of December.
Looking ahead, the country’s consumer inflation outlook requires close attention amid heightened geopolitical risks following the latest developments in the Middle East, including the U.S. and Israel’s attack on Iran. At its policy meeting on March 19, the BOJ kept its monetary policy unchanged, maintaining the overnight interest rate target at 0.75%. The central bank also noted the need to closely monitor the impact of rising geopolitical tensions on global financial markets, which have become increasingly volatile amid sharp swings in oil prices.