0830 JST (2330 GMT/1930 EDT Thursday, April 23) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases March CPI.
Mace News median: total CPI +1.4% y/y (range: +1.2% to +1.6%) vs. Feb +1.3%; core CPI (ex-fresh food) +1.6% y/y (range: +1.5% to +1.9%) vs. Feb +1.6%; core-core CPI (ex-fresh food, energy) +2.4% y/y (range +2.3% to +2.5%) vs. Feb +2.5%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s nationwide consumer price index is expected to be little changed across all three major measures in March from the previous month. Gains in energy prices driven by tensions in the Middle East were partly offset by the government’s introduction of new gasoline subsidies from mid-March, helping to cushion the impact of higher international oil prices.
CPI was also weighed down by a slowdown in food price inflation amid fading base effects. Reflecting the trend in Tokyo CPI data released on March 31, the nationwide core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is expected to rise 1.6% on the year in March, unchanged from a month earlier. This would mark a second straight reading below the Bank of Japan’s 2.0% inflation target and the first consecutive sub-2% reading in four years, last seen in February and March 2022.
In Tokyo, both core and overall CPI fell below the 2% mark as energy prices were capped by government subsidies aimed at lowering electricity bills during the peak heating season, offsetting the impact of a spike in gasoline prices caused by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The two other key nationwide CPI measures are also expected to be little changed. Overall CPI is projected to rise 1.4% on the year in March after a 1.3% gain in February. Core-core CPI, which excludes both fresh food and energy, is seen edging down to 2.4% from 2.5% the previous month.