0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Tuesday, April 21) The Ministry of Finance releases March trade.
Mace News median: exports +11.2% y/y (range: +8.9% to +14.2%) vs. a revised +4.0% February from +4.2; imports +5.7% y/y (range: +3.0% to +10.1%) vs. a revised +10.3% in February from +10.2%; trade surplus ¥1,114.20 billion (range: a surplus of ¥530.60 billion to a surplus of ¥1,620.00 billion) vs. a revised ¥44.30 billion surplus in February from ¥57.30 billion; ¥529.81 surplus in March 2025
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japanese export values are expected to rise for a seventh straight month in March and expected to push the country’s trade balance into surplus for a second consecutive month. Rising oil prices amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are seen restraining import volumes, although import values are still expected to increase for a second straight month.
Exports are projected to rise 11.2% on the year in March, accelerating from a revised 4.0% gain in February (initially 4.2%). Solid overseas demand for semiconductor-related electronic components and non-ferrous metals continued to support exports, but growth is seen moderating toward the end of March amid the impact of the U.S.-Iran military tensions.
In February, export growth picked up modestly, partly reflecting payback from front-loaded shipments to Asia ahead of the Feb. 17 Lunar New Year, which had boosted January figures. The February increase was driven by computer chips, mineral fuels and construction machinery, partly offset by declines in semiconductor manufacturing equipment and iron and steel. Exports to Europe and Asia remained firm, while shipments to the U.S. and China declined.
Imports are forecast to rise 5.7% on the year in March, slowing from a revised 10.3% increase in February (initially 10.2%). February imports were led by semiconductor-related components, non-ferrous metals and non-ferrous metal ores, partly reflecting irregular trade patterns linked to Lunar New Year holidays in parts of Asia.
Against this backdrop, Japan’s customs-cleared trade balance is expected to post a surplus of about 1.11 trillion yen in March, a sharp increase from a revised 44.3 billion yen surplus in February.