Thursday, April 30, 2026
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Wednesday, Apr 29) The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases March and January-March industrial production, outlook for April and May.
Mace News median: +0.7% m/m (range: -1.0% to +2.5%) vs. Feb. revised to -2.0% from -2.1%; +3.0% y/y (range: +0.0% to +5.3%) vs. Feb. revised to +0.4% from +0.3%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s industrial output is expected to rebound in March, marking the first monthly increase in two months as the impact of Middle East geopolitical tensions appears limited and there are signs that exports picked up during the month.
Industrial production is seen rising 0.7% on the month in March after a revised 2.0% drop in February, compared with an initial 2.1% decline. The February contraction was initially driven by declines in trucks, engines, aluminum products and liquid crystal display panels. The subsequent upward revision reflected increases in pharmaceuticals and auto parts, while output in the food and tobacco industries fell.
On a year-on-year basis, output is expected to rise for a fourth consecutive month in March, increasing 3.0% after a revised 0.4% gain in February (initially 0.3%).
Separate data from the Ministry of Finance released on April 22 showed that Japan’s export values rose 11.7% y/y in March, marking a seventh straight increase and broadly in line with expectations. Exports reached a record ¥11.00 trillion, surpassing the previous high of ¥10.41 trillion set in December 2025.
In its February report, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry maintained its assessment that industrial output was “moving sideways.” The latest change to this view was made in July 2024, when the ministry upgraded its assessment.