Friday, May 15, 2026
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Thursday, May 14) The Bank of Japan releases the April corporate goods price index.
Mace News median: CGPI +3.2% y/y (range: +2.8% to +3.7%) vs. Mar +2.6%; +1.0% m/m (range: +0.5% to +1.3%) vs. Mar +0.8%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s producer inflation, measured by the corporate goods price index (CGPI), is expected to rise in April at the fastest pace in a year, driven by gains in oil-derived products such as chemicals and in nonferrous metals amid persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
The yen’s weakness is also pointing to a re-emergence of inflationary pressure through higher import prices. Given this backdrop, the CGPI is expected to rise 3.2% on the year in April, the highest since a 3.9% increase in the same month in 2025. The index stood at 2.6% in March after slowing to a near two-year low of 2.1% in February.
In March, the annual increase was driven by worsening Middle East conditions and higher transaction prices for agricultural, forestry and fishery products. Food and beverages rose 4.3% on the year, agricultural, forestry and fishery products increased 18.9%, and nonferrous metals surged 31.1%.
The uptrend in nonferrous metals is expected to continue in April, while chemical products are also seen rising, reflecting surging crude oil prices. With Middle East tensions persisting, international crude oil prices have remained elevated, leading to broader price increases in downstream industrial materials.
Nonferrous metals have also been supported by higher copper prices and the yen’s weakness fed through to prices of copper-based metal products. Aluminum prices have also risen amid supply concerns stemming from for the Middle East tension.
In contrast, price increases in oil products such as gasoline, which surged in March, have paused as the government resumed emergency subsidies, lowering wholesale prices from refiners to affiliated gas stations.
On a month-on-month basis, the CGPI is expected to rise 1.0% in April after increasing 0.8% in March.