0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Wednesday, May 21) The Ministry of Finance releases April trade.
Mace News median: exports +9.4% y/y (range: +8.5% to +10.0%) vs. a revised +11.5% March from +11.7%; imports +8.8% y/y (range: +7.1% to +9.4%) vs. 10.9% in March; trade deficit ¥96.25 billion (range: a deficit of ¥200.70 billion to a surplus of ¥67.80 billion) vs. a revised ¥643.00 billion surplus in March from ¥667.00 billion; ¥149.52 deficit in April 2025
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japanese export values are expected to increase in April for an eighth consecutive month, as the underlying strength of the global economy and continuing solid auto demand in Europe support shipments. The yen’s weakness also helped lift export values but at the same time boosted import values, which is expected to push the country’s trade balance into deficit for the first time in three months.
The country’s exports are seen posting a 9.4% rise on the year in April, slowing from a revised 11.5% gain in March from the initial 11.7%. In March, the double-digit increase was driven by computer chips, non-ferrous metals and mineral fuels as seen in recent months. Japanese automakers and steelmakers are weathering the storm of Trump tariffs. Japan’s total shipments to the United States remained larger than those to China in both value and volume terms in the fiscal year ended March 31.
The yen’s weakness against the dollar, down more than 8% from the same period last year, resulted in higher export and import values. Oil imports from the Middle East are believed to have slowed amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Iraq.
April imports are seen rising 8.8% from a year earlier after increasing 10.9% in March. Imports continued to show solid gains in March, led by purchases of telecommunications equipment, including smartphones, as well as non-ferrous metals and computer chips.
Against this trend, the country’s customs-cleared trade balance is expected to fall into deficit in April for the first time in three months. The trade balance is projected to show a deficit of 96.25 billion yen compared with a revised surplus of 643.0 billion yen a month earlier.