0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Tuesday, June 16) The Ministry of Finance releases May trade.
Mace News median: exports +14.8% y/y (range: +10.7% to +19.0%) vs. +14.8% in April; imports +12.5% y/y (range: +9.9% to +16.6%) vs. revised +9.8% in April from 9.7%; trade deficit ¥559.60 billion (range: a deficit of ¥660.00 billion to a deficit of ¥348.70 billion) vs. a revised ¥299.27 billion surplus in April from ¥301.90 billion; ¥662.47 deficit in May 2025
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Driven by increasing imports in the resource-poor country amid prolonged tensions in the Middle East, Japan’s trade balance is expected to fall into deficit for the first time in four months in May. Robust trade activity is expected to lift export values from a year earlier for the ninth consecutive month and import values for the fourth straight month.
Japanese exports are expected to rise for the ninth consecutive month on the year in May, increasing 14.8% after the same gain in the previous month. The April value reached the second-highest level on record at ¥10.5 trillion, led by double-digit percentage gains in shipments of computer chips, non-ferrous metals and engines. Despite stiff U.S. trade tariffs, Japanese exports rose for the second straight month in April, up 9.5%, supported by shipments of computer chips, construction and mining equipment, and heavy electrical machinery. Exports to Europe and Asia have also been increasing.
As geopolitical uncertainty persists amid concerns over a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, resource-poor Japan has been scrambling to diversify its imports of natural resources away from the Middle East. Coupled with the ongoing weakness of the yen, import values are expected to rise 12.5% in May after a revised 9.8% increase in April from the initially +9.7%.
Coupled with the yen’s weakness despite Japanese authorities’ currency intervention efforts in May, elevated international prices of oil, metals and other natural resources have continued to push up import costs for Japan. As a result, Japan’s customs-cleared trade balance is expected to fall into deficit for the first time in four months in May, with the trade balance seen posting a deficit of 559.60 billion yen after a revised surplus of ¥299.27 billion in the previous month.