Friday, July 31, 2026
0830 JST (2330 GMT/1930 EDT Thursday, July 30) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases July Tokyo CPI.
Mace News median: total CPI +1.8% y/y (range: +1.8% to +1.9%) vs. June +1.7%; core CPI (ex-fresh food) +1.8% (range: +1.7% to +1.8%) vs. June +1.6%; core-core CPI (ex-fresh food, energy) +2.0% (range: +1.9% to +2.1%) vs. June +1.9%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Tokyo’s consumer inflation is expected to accelerate in July as persistent upward price pressures, partly driven by prolonged geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and higher import costs, outweigh the government’s gasoline and utility subsidies as well as easing food prices, pushing the closely watched core consumer price index (CPI) to its highest level in five months.
The CPI for Japan’s capital is a leading indicator of the national inflation trend and accelerating consumer inflation could create additional challenges for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government. Recent opinion polls conducted by several media organizations, including Japan’s public broadcaster NHK, showed a sharp decline in the government’s approval rating, with respondents citing the lack of effective anti-inflation measures as one of the main reasons for their disapproval.
All three major CPI measures are expected to accelerate after remaining below the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target for the previous three months, with price increases at supermarkets becoming more visible in July. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is forecast to rise 1.8% on the year in July, accelerating for a second consecutive month from 1.6% in June and reaching its highest level since February. The index had fallen to a more than three-year low of 1.3% in April before rebounding.
The core-core index, which excludes both fresh food and energy, is expected to rise 2.0% on the year in July, up from 1.9% in June. That would mark the first time the index rose back to the 2% mark since March. The headline CPI is forecast to rise 1.8% in July, compared with a 1.7% increase in June.
In June, Tokyo inflation accelerated as the year-on-year increase in processed food prices continued to moderate, while the decline in gasoline prices narrowed compared with June 2025, when easing fuel costs exerted stronger downward pressure on inflation. The June reading followed a sharp slowdown in May, when the Tokyo metropolitan government launched a four-month program to waive basic water charges, with some households beginning to receive the benefit in June. The initial impact of the temporary relief measure appears to have largely faded in July, partly because a similar program was implemented last summer.