Consensus outlook for Mace News
Thursday, Aug 20, 2026
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Wednesday, Aug 19) The Ministry of Finance releases July trade.
Mace News median: exports +21.2% y/y (range: +19.0% to +23.8%) vs. +19.3% in June; imports +26.5% y/y (range: +21.0% to +29.2%) vs. +25.4% in June; trade deficit ¥670.70 billion (range: a deficit of ¥708.80 billion to a deficit of ¥250.00 billion) vs. a revised ¥409.93 billion deficit in June from ¥406.9 billion deficit; ¥156.28 deficit in July 2025
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japanese exports are projected to increase sharply in July, rising for an 11th straight month on the year and extending the recent upward trend on robust global demand for semiconductors, chipmaking equipment and automobiles. Imports are expected to grow for a sixth consecutive month as the resource-poor country scrambles to diversify its sources of oil purchases away from the Middle East, pushing up import costs.
Robust imports, also boosted by the yen’s weakness, are seen pushing the trade balance into a deficit for a third straight month in July, at 670.70 billion yen, following a deficit of 409.93 billion yen a month earlier.
Japanese exports are expected to remain resilient despite additional U.S. tariffs and ongoing deterioration in diplomatic relations with China, as exports to both countries climbed for the four months through June, with Japanese auto exports to the U.S. pointing to a strong recovery. Exports are seen rising 21.2% on the year in July after jumping a revised 19.3% a month earlier.
The value of exports in June climbed to the second-highest level on record at a revised 10.93 trillion yen, led by increases in automobiles, computer chips and non-ferrous metals. The gains were largely in line with recent trends, with demand from countries around the world boosted by projects involving the construction of data centers and other developments related to artificial intelligence.