Wednesday, Sept 16, 2026
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Tuesday, Sept 15) The Ministry of Finance releases August trade.
Mace News median: exports +17.7% y/y (range: +15.9% to +19.6%) vs. +23.2% in July; imports +26.0% y/y (range: +24.0% to +26.1%) vs. revised 27.9% in July from +27.8%; trade deficit ¥1,052.20 billion (range: a deficit of ¥1,103.60 billion to a deficit of ¥920.00 billion) vs. a revised ¥638.34 billion deficit in July from ¥634.5 billion deficit; ¥294.09 deficit in August 2025
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japanese export values are expected to post another double-digit percentage gain for the sixth straight month on the year in August after reaching a record high in the previous month, driven by gains in automobiles, computer chips and semiconductor-producing equipment, continuing a trend seen in recent months.
The weak yen was also seen to have boosted both export and import values. Import values are expected to have risen sharply again in August, as Japan continued to actively acquire crude oil, chipmaking equipment and non-ferrous metals. Import values had already reached a record high in July.
Robust oil imports amid the yen’s continued weakness are expected to push the country’s trade balance into deficit for the fourth straight month, with the shortfall seen topping ¥1 trillion for the first time in seven months.
Exports are seen rising for the 12th straight month in August, up 1７.7% on the year after increasing 23.2% a month earlier. Export values surged to ¥11.51 trillion in July, breaking the previous record of ¥10.98 trillion reached in March 2026.
Exports to the U.S. had been recovering for five straight months through July. Auto exports appeared to have recovered, partly due to a year-earlier base effect related to the Trump tariffs, although actual demand appeared to be peaking out.
Imports are expected to rise 26.0% in August after being revised up to a 27.9% rise in July from the initial 27.8%, as robust oil imports amid lingering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to keep international prices elevated. The weak yen is also expected to have pushed up the value of imports. In July, import values hit a record high of ¥12.15 trillion, exceeding the previous high of ¥11.34 trillion reached only a month earlier.
These trends in trade activity are expected to bring Japan’s trade balance into deficit for a fourth straight month in August and widen the shortfall to ¥1.052 trillion, the highest since January, from a revised deficit of ¥638.34 billion a month earlier.