Wednesday, Sept 30, 2026
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Tuesday, Sept 29) The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases August retail sales.
Mace News median: +2.7% y/y (range: +1.2% to +3.7%) vs. July revised to +3.7% from +4.0%; -0.9% m/m (range: -1.6% to -0.8%) vs. July revised to +2.1% from +2.4%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japanese retail sales are seen rising for a sixth straight month on the year in August as inflationary pressure remained in place. Strong sales at major department stores provided overall support, while retail sales are expected to slow as auto sales, new passenger car registrations and gasoline sales showed signs of weakening.
Retail sales are projected to rise 2.7% in August from a year earlier, compared with a revised 3.7% increase in July, which was revised down from the preliminary 4.0% rise. A cooler-than-usual summer in the Tokyo metropolitan area may have restrained consumption and weighed on retail sales during the month.
Retail sales have picked up steadily in recent months. In July, the year-on-year increase was led by autos, appliances, department stores and drugs/cosmetics. Hot weather after the rainy season boosted demand for air conditioners, while auto sales also increased. Subsidies continued to put a lid on gasoline and diesel prices, resulting in no change in fuel sales after a recent downtrend. The increase was broad-based.
Retail sales on a month-on-month basis are seen falling 0.9% in August after a revised 2.1% rise in July, compared with the original 2.4% rise. In July, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry maintained its assessment, which it had upgraded in its May report, that retail sales are “on a gradual uptrend.”