Consensus outlook for Mace News
Friday, October 2, 2026
0830 JST (2330 GMT/1930 EDT Thursday, October 1) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases September Tokyo CPI.
Mace News median: total CPI +2.2% y/y (range: +2.1% to +2.4%) vs. Aug +1.9%; core CPI (ex-fresh food) +2.1% (range: +1.9% to +2.2%) vs. Aug +1.8%; core-core CPI (ex-fresh food, energy) +2.4% (range: +2.1% to +2.6%) vs. Aug +2.0%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – The key readings of Tokyo’s consumer price index, a leading indicator of the nationwide trend, are expected to accelerate for a fourth straight month on the year in September as the broad upward trend in prices continues, with rising international energy prices and domestic food prices, as well as retailers increasingly passing higher labor, materials, transportation and other costs on to consumers.
The government continued efforts to ease the burden on consumers through measures including gasoline and utility subsidies. The Japanese authorities also took a rare step to intervene in the currency market with the U.S. in August and continued to monitor the market to curb excessive yen weakness. But the measures appeared to have had a limited impact on the yen in reversing the trend of rising import costs.
Against this backdrop, all three key Tokyo CPI measures are expected to rise above the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target in September for the first time in nine months.
The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is forecast to rise 2.1% on the year in September, compared with a 1.8% rise a month earlier. This was the highest since December, when core consumer inflation reached 2.3%. It also marked a rapid turnaround from May, when the core figure dipped to a four-year low of 1.2%.
In August, Tokyo CPI accelerated under the 2025 base year as many firms continued to pass higher costs on to consumers and the weak yen made imports more expensive. Still, the pace of acceleration was moderate in August as a sharper drop in overall energy prices and smaller gains in processed food markups and mobile communication fees partly offset the impact of higher medical bills and entertainment durable goods prices.
Elsewhere in the September forecast, total CPI is seen rising 2.2%, up from 1.9% in the previous month. The core-core index, which excludes both fresh food and energy, is expected to rise 2.4% on the year, up from 2.0% in August.