Consensus outlook for Mace News
Friday, October 30, 2026
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Tuesday, Sept 29) The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases September and the July-September quarter industrial production, as well as the outlook for October and November.
Mace News median: +1.2% m/m (range: +0.1% to +1.8%) vs. August revised to -2.4% from -1.7%; +0.9% y/y (range: -0.2% to +1.5%) vs. August revised to +2.7% from +3.4%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japanese industrial output is expected to rise on the month in September, supported by sustained demand related to artificial intelligence development, although gains were partly offset by a series of rainstorms and cooler-than-usual weather in northern regions, including the Tokyo metropolitan area. This would mark the first monthly increase in three months.
Industrial production was also seen as being weighed down by a slight decline in seasonally adjusted export values in the Ministry of Finance’s trade data released on October 21. Still, the underlying trend in production remained resilient, supported by sustained demand for AI-related products even as persistent geopolitical uncertainty has kept crude oil and other raw material prices elevated, adding to upward pressure on inflation.
Industrial output is forecast to rise 1.2% on the month in September, following a revised 2.4% decline in August from the initial 1.7% drop. Output is expected to rise 0.9% on the year, following a revised 2.7% increase in August after the initial 3.4% rise. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry had projected a 1.6% increase in its previous production forecast.
METI maintained its assessment in August that industrial output was “taking one step forward and one step back.” Production fell unexpectedly that month, with declines across a broad range of industries, including transport equipment such as automobiles and engines; general machinery, including conveyors and cranes; petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel and kerosene; and communications equipment, including computers and external storage devices.
Natural disasters were also seen as having partially disrupted production in August. A powerful earthquake with a magnitude of 7.1 struck Kumamoto Prefecture in southwestern Japan on July 28, killing 38 people and injuring many others, while damaging roads and bridges and disrupting electricity and water supplies. The disaster prompted automakers such as Toyota and Honda, as well as chipmakers including Renesas and Tokyo Electron, to suspend production in the region for several days.
In September, three powerful tropical storms affected Japan, bringing record-breaking rainfall to many parts of the country. The storms also pushed temperatures below seasonal norms in some regions, including areas around the Tokyo metropolitan area, potentially weighing on production activity.