Consensus outlook for Mace News
Friday, Oct 30, 2026
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Thursday, Oct 29) The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases September retail sales.
Mace News median: +3.2% y/y (range: -0.1% to +4.7%) vs. August revised to +2.9% from +2.7%; +1.0% m/m (range: +0.1% to +2.9%) vs. August revised to -0.9% from -1.2%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japanese retail sales are expected to rise on the year for the seventh straight month in September, partially supported by solid growth in major department store sales. Car sales are also expected to increase, but the pace of growth is seen slowing in line with a sharp deceleration in new passenger car registrations from the previous month.
Fuel sales are expected to edge lower as gasoline prices fell in September. But general inflationary pressure remained in place and is expected to help lift overall retail sales. They are forecast to rise 3.2% on the year in September, up from a revised 2.9% increase in August from the initial 2.7% rise.
On a month-on-month basis, retail sales are expected to rise 1.0%, following a revised 0.9% decline in August from the initial 1.2% fall.
In August, retail sales growth was led by strong automobile demand and solid gains in foodstuffs. However, growth slowed from July as cooler-than-usual weather and heavy rain and flooding dampened sales of summer clothing, air conditioners and other seasonal goods. Lower electronics sales appear to reflect sharp price increases for computers and smartphones amid global memory chip shortages and the prolonged weakness of the yen, which has kept import costs high. Fuel sales remained depressed as prices were restrained by subsidies aimed at easing the burden of high costs triggered by the Middle East conflict.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry downgraded its assessment of retail sales after upgrading it in the May report, saying sales were “taking one step forward and one step back.” Previously, the ministry had said sales were “on an uptrend.” This marks the first downgrade since September 2025.