Consensus outlook for Mace News
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026
0830 JST (2350 GMT/1830 EST Monday, Nov 9) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases the September average household spending.
Mace News median forecasts: -3.6% y/y (range: -4.2% to -1.5%) vs. Aug -3.1%; 0.3% m/m (range: -0.4% to +1.5%) vs. Aug +0.1%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Ongoing inflationary pressure is expected to push down Japan’s real household spending for a 10th consecutive month on the year in September. On a month-on-month basis, household spending is projected to rise for a third straight month.
Signs of slower growth in retail sales emerged in September, while new passenger car registrations also showed signs of a slowdown. Meanwhile, department store, supermarket and convenience store sales all increased from a year earlier, pointing to stronger consumer spending in these areas.
Spending could have picked up in September as Japan had its first five-day Silver Week holiday period since 2015. Still, concerns over a further acceleration in inflation toward year-end may have dampened consumers’ appetite for spending. Against this backdrop, household spending is expected to decline for the 10th straight month on the year.
Real household spending by two-or-more-person households is expected to fall 3.6% on the year in September, following a 3.1% decline a month earlier. On the month, spending is projected to rise 0.3%, marking the third consecutive increase, after climbing 0.1% in August.
In August, rising living costs and stormy weather in many regions weighed on household spending. Cooler weather dampened demand for summer clothing, air conditioners and other seasonal goods. Excluding home maintenance and repairs and other volatile items such as vehicles and gift money, the core measure fell 4.2% after declining 1.4% in July.
The year-on-year decline in household spending was led by lower spending on private university tuition, domestic package tours and electricity bills, which were affected by government subsidies. Meanwhile, spending increased on money sent to children studying away from home, automobile purchases and high school education, including fees for cram schools.