By Denny Gulino
THE WHITE HOUSE (MaceNews) – As time suddenly is about to run out for 2019, government funding, USMCA, the China trade deal and the expected Senate impeachment trial look like calendar items for 2020. And with a jobs report like the one published earlier Friday, who cares?
For once stock markets had their enthusiasm generated by something other than trade speculation. The end-of-the-week DJIA finished up more than 300 points, or 1.2%. Exceeding all expectations, the 266,000 additions to November payrolls and 41,000 more added in revisions appeared to take any Fed rate move next Wednesday completely off the table.
Talks were under way during the day on USMCA among the U.S., Canada and Mexico as unresolved problems involving unrelated multi-employer pension bailouts and rules of origin for auto assembly stand in the way, not the tweet-blamed Speaker of the House.
China trade, arguably less consequential than an updated NAFTA, has occupied the attention of deputy negotiators as recently as Wednesday night, according to White House economic coordinator Larry Kudlow in a Bloomberg interview. Most of the bets are on a postponement of the Dec. 15 tariff hikes that would show up at U.S. checkout counters to allow more talking.
The negotiations on Capitol Hill over the 12 appropriations bills necessary to keep the U.S. government running past Dec. 20 are slogging along, so far too slowly to make the deadline. That argues for another short-term measure extending the talks into the new year.
The 5 p.m. deadline for a White House response to the House Judiciary Committee’s call for witnesses seemed to be as ignored as all the rest of the impeachment inquiry requests. Given that articles of impeachment once delivered freeze Senate consideration of everything else there is little chance the expected Senate trial gets underway until after the previously referenced budget is worked out – if it is before a shutdown.
For the White House, which has signaled a spirited defense will be mounted if and when the Senate takes over, there is likely a worst-case-scenario nightmare, a pro-active chief justice who summons his own witnesses and documentation.
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-Among the new notes heard this week, President Trump’s threat to resort to some trade actions against NATO countries which don’t try to meet the 2%/GDP target for contributions.
–There were confusing administration and presidential denials of that WSJ report of 14,000 – or in a tweet, 12,000 – U.S. troops that might be sent to the Mideast to counter Iran amid reported anonymous confirmation that the number would be 5,000 to 7,000.
-Nor has the restoration of $105 million in military aid to Lebanon’s army, held up without explanation as Israel reportedly pushed for anti-tank weapons to be withheld, fearing they would fall into the hands of Iran-linked Hezbollah.
– Fareed Zakaria’s long analysis in the latest Foreign Affairs magazine of what he considers short-sighted China policy and its possible dire consequences for the decades ahead got a lot of attention.
-Also, not to be ignored, the mountain ride on his symbolic white horse of North Korea’s Kim which might prefigure some sort of saber-rattling drama for the Christmas season.
-As for the newest tariffs, seemingly every trade analyst has observed that steel and aluminum are priced in U.S. dollars, so the president’s complaint that renewed tariff targets Brazil and Argentina are devaluing their currencies has no relevance even if it were something under their control. If soybeans supplied China is the real reason for the tariffs, the metals levies seem to be missing the mark.
Next week, the approaching House impeachment inquiry finale and the approaching Dec. 15 decision date on additional tariffs aimed at China.
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Contact this reporter: denny@macenews.com