By Denny Gulino
THE WHITE HOUSE (MaceNews) – The US-Mexico-Canada trade deal, a major achievement of the Trump administration, is much closer to starting the 90-day countdown to final ratification among the three countries, having finally overcome political, labor and technical hurdles.
It is the biggest accomplishment for the Trump White House so far and, according to many trade analysts, could be bigger medium-term positive influence on the U.S. economy than even a trade pact with China.
The biggest barrier, requirements for upgraded Mexico labor arrangements, including increased hourly wages at auto assembly plants, has been settled according to AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka to The Washington Post. He said he briefed his executive committee via conference call on details.
The hope of the labor federation is that with higher wages and more stringent labor protections, Mexico would no longer be nearly as much the low-wage magnet for auto company and other manufacturing operations.
The White House declared a “lid” shortly after 5 p.m., a guarantee of no new presidential appearances Monday, despite many reports that the general agreement on the new NAFTA could possibly be formally announced at any time.
The news that negotiations that began in 2017 and were modified this year to address demands from the Democrat-controlled House were finally concluded was first reported by the Fox Business Network followed by CNBC and CNN.
Congressional committees are reportedly being briefed on the agreement later this week. The first stop on Capitol Hill for USMCA is the House Ways and Means Committee which could bring it to the House floor in a few days.
Earlier in the day, on the sidelines of an education conference, President Trump told reporters, “I’m hearing a lot of strides have been made over the last 24 hours, with unions and others.”
He added, “I hope they put it up for a vote, and if they put it up for a vote, it’s going to pass.”
U.S. trade ambassador Robert Lighthizer was reported by The Wall Street Journal to be heading for Mexico to nail down last-minute assurances. Mexico and Canada need to approve changes made to the initial agreement signed last year before submitting it to legislatures for ratification.
The government’s latest deadline for budget action to prevent a shutdown is in 11 days, setting a practical limit to what can be accomplished in the handful of scheduled legislative days remaining this year.
As soon as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi delivers her go-ahead as now expected given Trumka’s endorsement, House action on USMCA would be expedited.
Meanwhile, a China deputy official has been quoted saying a trade pact with his country is top priority. Its deadline is seen as the Dec. 15 date by which the president must decide whether to go ahead with increased tariffs on $160 billion of imports from China, with a postponement seen the most likely path. China would prefer not only no mid-December tariffs but a rollback of October levies as well.
The USMCA sets trading rules for a massive amount of goods, including autos, trucks and parts, steel, aluminum as well as agriculture products from dairy to tomatoes and poultry. In addition it covers data, intellectual property, pharmaceuticals, construction and engineering, The new agreement also contains an unprecedented provision that addresses transparency in acknowledging exchange rate factors.
Estimate vary as to the economic impact of the current NAFTA agreement on the U.S. economy, with supporters saying millions of jobs and more than a trillion dollars a year in two-way trade would have been much smaller numbers without it.