By Denny Gulino
THE WHITE HOUSE (MaceNews) – Time zones and thousands of miles away, President Trump will nevertheless keep close track of the impeachment trial that gets underway Tuesday, reliant on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to keep things under control.
Trump had warned his supporters on Capitol Hill early on in a tweet not to fall for what he considered a trap of giving any ground and his more than 100-page defense brief and the congressional Republicans are so far holding firm that his call to Ukraine Prime Minister Volodymyr Zelensky was “perfect.”
Departing on an evening flight to Zurich and then on to the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Trump first walked slowly to Marine One, choosing to go quietly without talking to the ropeline reporters. The tweeted picture is on @MaceNewsMacro.
Earlier Trump and Vice President Mike Pence made a quick trip to the Martin Luther King Memorial, nine minutes away, to spend some time with heads bowed.
With tens of thousands of words written about the impeachment trial every day, and tons of TV coverage and the deepening fixation of cable news channels, no need to go over the obvious. Yet a quick look ahead may be in order. If the Senate acquits Trump as expected, given the vote arithmetic, the question becomes what, if anything, will have changed.
Put on the spot in her morning news conference by a Wall Street Journal reporter, IMF’s chief economist Gita Gopinath answered that she had “nothing” to say to the question whether the impeachment effort is to have any effect on the U.S. or global economy. The global economy, she said at another point, is running a half a point weaker, not because of impeachment, but because of the trade war with China. There are, after all, massive tariffs still in place despite “Phase One.”
Had there been no agreement with China the world economy, seeing a growth rate of 3.3% this year, would be running 0.8 of a point slower. In the IMF’s World Economic Outlook update that world growth projection was trimmed a tenth since the IMF’s last look in October.
The U.S. outlook is for a growth rate of 2.0% this year, an estimate downgraded by a tenth of a point since October and less than last year’s 2.3%.
The IMF warned that should a trade battle with the EU break out, with U.S. tariffs against wine and autos already bandied about as possibilities, those projections could take a dive. On the other hand, should trade tensions with China ease some more U.S. and global growth could benefit. China’s growth projection, post Phase One, in contrast to the U.S., was upgraded by 0.2 of a point to 6.0%, which is still weaker than last year,
The key question then becomes whether a President Trump who survives the impeachment effort becomes more or less likely to go ahead with an aggressive tariff attack on European goods. EU Trade Minister Phil Hogan was in town last week to meet with USTR Bob Lighthizer to try to head off any such possibility. If anything, his speech at CSIS had a challenging tone to it though he said he’s ready to work with the U.S. to reform the WTO.
Or maybe the impeachment effort has no effect. The president is accustomed to braving challenges and coming out on top in many instances. His order to kill Iran’s top general has gotten some pushback from Congress in the form of a proposal to limit his options when inclined to order military action but practically speaking, there’s not much to prevent him from another such order.
The general expectation, though, is something is bound to change. Surviving impeachment the president takes to heart his chastisement by the House of Representatives and scales down some planned assaults on any number of Obama-era measures. Or perhaps he becomes more emboldened and finds additional things about which to joust with Democrats.
If he survives, perhaps the House has a little less clout in battles with the administration and its dominant personalities, like the Speaker of the House, become a little less dominant. The betting among some press wags leans toward seeing, after a Senate acquittal, still more shoes dropping, presenting the possibility of new articles of impeachment.
In the coming election do voters, who in one poll by a majority want Trump removed from office, consider him a victor if acquitted or a lucky escapee, and how does that influence their choices?
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Contact this reporter: denny@macenews.com