–The SARS 2002-2003 Scare Lasted Nine Months
By Denny Gulino
THE WHITE HOUSE (MaceNews) – The virus that hits the heart of business activity, separating workers from their offices, halting travelers and cutting into shopping, becomes a bonafide worldwide macroeconomic phenomenon beginning later next week, if infections skyrocket as Lunar New Year gatherings end and the spread becomes much more pronounced.
It takes an electron microscope to see the corona of protein spikes that identify the virus family. It does not take a devastating mortality rate to be scary, and so far, this disease is only moderately lethal. Yet it has the capacity to mutate as it travels human to human into something much more deadly, given its apparently high rate of airborne transmission.
The bottom line: a potentially massive exogenous shock to the system, becoming a bigger concern week by week perhaps as February turns into March and spring turns into summer.. The SARS virus scare, after all, lasted from November 2002 to July 2003.
A White House spokesman earlier Wednesday was asked about the threat and delivered what appeared to be a minimally alarmed response.
The president has been briefed and “remains consistently vigilant in making sure that this doesn’t spread throughout our country,” Hogan Gidley told reporters.
President Trump has gained the reputation of having a very low tolerance for being in the proximity of respiratory illness. That came into public view when the word spread of his interrupting his answer in an ABC interview being recorded in June to tell his off-camera chief of staff Mick Mulvaney to leave the Oval Office when he coughed.
Trump had nothing to say at the ropeline when he walked past to enter Marine One without comment midafternoon Wednesday, on the way to an evening appearance before the Republican National Committee winter retreat. He ignored questions as he boarded Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews as well.
His day’s tweets were aimed at familiar targets, “Shifty Schiff,” the whistleblower, and “Mini Mike” Bloomberg, who’s spending on the campaign passes the quarter-billion mark – with his polling showing some improvement. Trump’s tweets and retweets – a record 140 Tueday – have ramped up as House prosecutors continued to make their case in the Senate impeachment trial. Trump’s defenders take over the spotlight Saturday.
Stocks overcame a severe midday slump to climb back into mostly – except for the Dow industrials – positive territory by the close, Analysts looking back at the SARS era were generally reassured by the fact the trough was hit early on and there was no market panic for the remaining months of the episode.
However some pointed out the office-hobbling disruptions that accompany such an illness hit service industries the hardest and since the early 2000s China’s services industries have blossomed into a sector of massive dimensions. A slumping China economy wouldn’t encourage strict adherence to “Phase One” promises. The pact’s enforcement “mechanism” in any event is an unusual executive agreement to allow either side to initiate retaliation according to each country’s criteria, not via complaint to any adjudicating body like the WTO.
In her morning news conference, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde was asked her opinion of negative rates. While avoiding specific definitive answers throughout, she did say she is concerned about low and negative rates even though they helped create millions of jobs and contributed to growth. She is concerned, she said, because low and negative rates give central banks less room to maneuver should there be shocks to the system.
The Federal Reserve’s policy arm meets next week and when Wednesday’s news conference comes around, Chair Jay Powell may well be asked how serious a shock the Wuhan corona virus, in his opinion, could become..
The World Health Organization Wednesday held off raising a worldwide alert, saying there are too few cases so far to merit that drastic move. Officials in China, halting transport out of several cities containing tens of millions, said they are considering closing more than three dozen Macau casinos.
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Contact this reporter: denny@macenews.com