–‘Blending’ Two Strategies as Numbers Climb
By Denny Gulino
THE WHITE HOUSE (MaceNews) – The stock markets Monday seemingly resigned themselves to the long slog of bad virus news ahead, gaining around 4.5% to 5.1% as the drastic repricing of last week was recalibrated somewhat in the opposite direction.
At the White House, the first of Vice President Mike Pence’s daily virus briefings had as its top headline, the effort to contain the corona virus is already beginning to share its top priority status with the tactic of “mitigation.” That’s the next step when the virus inexorably begins to jump from person to person within the country.
The total U.S. numbers are still comparatively small, the risk “low,” with six fatalities and 43 confirmed cases, 26 of whom are in Washington State.
Yet there was every indication from all directions, from the White House briefing to many interviews reported Monday across the country with medical experts, that those numbers will steadily get worse.
The next headline was that the biggest pharmaceutical firms who sent executives to the White House to meet with Trump, Pence and the rest of the Corona Virus Task force in the afternoon said it may take until early next year to distribute an effective vaccine. Meanwhile progress is being made on techniques and therapeutic medicines.
As the virus spreads in Europe more travel restrictions on arrivals to the U.S. are being considered in addition to those already in effect for China, Iran, South Korea and Italy. South Korea has already begun 100% screenings of all airline passengers and Italy will do the same within hours.
“We’re going to use the public health strategies that we can to limit that transmission and I think we should focus on that right now,” Pence said. “We’re still working very hard in trying to contain these community outbreaks, but as the secretary [HHS’s Azar] has said we are blending that now with very strategic mitigation strategies.”
The “mitigation” signal portends many more deaths but officials have not disclosed the rules of thumb they use for the spread of particularly contagious viruses, particularly one that insidiously spreads itself via long incubation periods and the majority-mild symptoms that keep nearly asymptomatic individuals circulating near other people.
The stock markets’ rebound was not proportionately mirrored in the credit markets where yields of Treasury securities hit some more all-time lows before settling a little higher. At one point early in the day the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield bottomed at a record 1.031%, threatening a descent below the “one handle” that prompted some dire predictions that negative U.S. rates lie ahead. As markets in Asia came alive Monday night the 10-year yield was back up to 1.167%.
President Trump had comparatively little to say during the day, with brief exchanges with reporters on three occasions, including in late afternoon at the ropeline on the South Lawn before traveling to another MAGA rally, this one in Charlotte, North Carolina on the eve of the Super Tuesday sweep of primaries.
The president’s Twitter feed was comparatively restrained during the day, consisting mostly of retweets of past endorsements of candidates in Tuesday’s string of primaries, a few slams of political opponents and another swipe at the Federal Reserve for not lowering interest rates to a great extent.
It looks like, Trump said at the ropeline, the Democratic campaign, “is rigged against Bernie,” the candidate his MAGA rally attendees last week cheered as the weakest contender against whom Trump could run.
Former Vice President Joe Biden, who regained some precious momentum with his South Carolina victory last week, was hoping the endorsement of the two latest Democratic campaign dropouts, Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg, will help him win some more Tuesday.
Meanwhile the cold calculations of market participants and CEOs seemed to center on five considerations:
–The much improved science of molecular biology accelerates the distribution of an effective corona virus vaccine by how much?
–What is the capacity of President Trump, his vice president and the rest of the Corona Virus Task Force to stay abreast of true virus developments and to be perceived to be communicating accurately?
–What will be the rate of increase of fatalities per day when “community spread” accelerates in the weeks ahead?
–What will U.S. consumer demand do as death count mounts?
–What will happen to industrial supply lines as the death count mounts?
The sobering update of Centers for Disease Control advice to health care facilities, counseling an avoidance of “face-to-face” medical care as much as possible as the virus spreads, underscored the dark background music behind the stock markets rebound.
“Several major impacts can be anticipated during a severe outbreak that could affect the operations of healthcare facilities,” the CDC advised. “These include surges in patients seeking care, the potential for workforce absenteeism from personal or family illness, and effects from social distancing measures such as school closures.
“Healthcare facilities will likely need to adjust the way they triage, assess and care for patients using methods that do not rely on face-to-face care.”
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Contact this reporter: denny@macenews.com