DATA FLASH: US APRIL CONFIDENCE FELL FURTHER, BUT EXPECTATIONS IMPROVE

By Kevin Kastner

WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The Conference Board’s U.S. consumer confidence index Tuesday fell to a reading of 86.9 in April from a downward revised 118.8 reading in March, as business and employment conditions deteriorated rapidly due to the COVID-19 shutdown.

And while the assessment of current conditions posted their largest one-month decline in the survey’s history, as foreshadowed by the Michigan data release on Friday, an improved reading for expectations provided some glimmer of hope.

Some states moved to partially open their economies at the end of April or in early-May. The wisdom of those early openings can be debated, especially if they trigger a rebound in cases, but they do present a small light at the end of the tunnel for consumers in some areas.

Lynn Franco, the Conference Board’s Senior Director of Economic Indicators, said that confidence “weakened significantly in April, driven by a severe deterioration in current conditions.”

The reading of present situation reading plunged to 76.4 from 166.7, but the expectations reading rose to 93.8 from 86.8.

Survey respondents were much less optimistic about both current business conditions and employment opportunities in April.

The percentage of respondents describing business conditions as “bad” surged to 45.2% from 11.7% in March.

Those reporting jobs were plentiful fell to 20.0% from 43.3%, while those reporting that they are “hard to get” jumped to 33.6% from 13.8%.

The gap between the two jobs measures, a closely watched indicator of employment conditions, fell to -13.6 in April from 29.5 in March, a strong negative for the employment data to be released on May 8.

On the upside, respondents looking for business conditions to improve over the next six months rose to 40.0% from 18.7%, a larger increase than in those that look for conditions to worsen, which rose to 25.7% from 16.4%.

Contact this reporter: kevin@macenews.com

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