WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The following is Monday’s’ status check of developments in the U.S. that can influence economic, health and political outcomes:
- A VIX improved by a large amount, 4.28%, to 24.74, backgrounded a mildly positive day for U.S. stocks, with the DJIA +0.43%/+114.88; S&P +0.74%/+23.78 and the Nasdaq +1.67%/+173.09. After-hours futures were much the same as was early Asia action.
- More attention may have paid to Monday’s dollar, with its index down another 0.14% and for the past trading week -2.36%. That’s -6.5% for the past three months, and now much more than an occasional flicker on the screen. Euro-dollar is up 2.82% for the week, and the inverse dollar-euro -1.274%.
- The dollar’s now persistent slide cheered the gold bugs, whose nominal take increased another 1.06% for the day to $1923.87 and, according to some analysts heading to $2000. Divorced from the dollar, adjusted for inflation gold’s move among global assets wasn’t that impressive. Particularly when compared to silver, up 3.71% for the day alone and ahead 28.03% for the week or especially when compared to its inflation-adjusted 1980 high.
- The FOMC’s meeting Tuesday and Wednesday “would be little short of astonishing” should anything actually happen,” according to Steve Beckner’s in-depth preview on macenews.com.
- The Corona Virus Task Force briefed President Trump during the day on vaccine developments and NIH’s Fauci was there. The president listened, he told CNN. And later in the day in North Carolina, Trump actually wore a mask while touring a development facility. Fauci’s wild pitch last week, one sports columnist observed (Wa Post), showed he doesn’t want anyone to catch anything. And now Fauci’s collector baseball card is the top seller. Then there’s a reported shadow task force that meets every day and devotes some time to the virus and some time to figuring out what the day’s White House line about the virus will be. Kushner, Miller, McEnany lead that effort. They also stuck close to Trump on his N.Carolina trip.
- There was nothing new in the formal unveiling of the Republican wish list for the next virus response legislation by Senate Leader McConnell on the Senate floor. To see what went into the legislative meatgrinder, the Senate Finance Committee’s fact sheet is at https://www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/SFC%20CARES%202.0%20Section-by-Section.pdf. But by this hour, after negotiating newbie Mark Meadows has been introduced to the Iron Maiden of Democratic priorities Nancy Pelosi at their 6 p.m. ET meeting, it may already be crumpled up in the waste basket. The White House’s Meadows is presumably supposed to keep Treasury’s Mnuchin from giving away the store. Republicans would like to get something done soon and leave more negotiating for later in August. All early indications are that’s among many GOP items that won’t fly.
- Among the day’s many tweets at macenewsmacro was the notation that virus reporters are bookmarking Princeton U’s evictionlab.org, an attempt to track all the different current and former eviction moratoriums that are expiring or not. No one knows if the extreme predictions are anywhere near correct, that many millions are going to be forced out on the street. Wht Hse’s Kudlow said Sunday the administration would like to extend the moratorium it controls, but as the Princeton site points out, it’s complicated. Highest chance of being evicted is in North Charleston.
- That incisive Steven Pearlstein column in the Washington Post Sunday listed 13 ways a Biden win and Democratic Capitol Hill sweep could change the policy landscape in ways Wall Street is not likely to embrace – like financial transaction taxes. He wondered how long it will take for the equities party to converge to reality.
- Speaking of reality, the cancelation of baseball games and pre-season football may be just the beginning. And yet the “beginning” may herald an awfully long period of adjustment. The latest National Geographic is devoted to pandemics. It took 100 years for a smallpox vaccine to be accepted enough to finally halt the disease in 1949.
- The virus’s intrusion into President Trump’s inner circle was another reality check. That the National Security Council staff had to hear from the media that their boss O’Brien tested positive hinted at more of the operational chaos the president always insists does not exist.
- As to the virus’s relentless advance, total fatalities 148,442 (NYT Tracker). With less than 5% of the world’s population, the U.S. a quarter of the world’s cases. The usual Monday sag after a weekend showed only 440 new deaths. The seven-day average is 912/day. As Fauci told CNN, when the rate is that high, something needs to be done.
- Tuesday’s economic data includes the Redbook read on retail activity at 8:55a ET and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 9a. Consumer confidence at 10a. Monday’s durable goods orders suggested auto production is still rebounding and so are inventory levels.
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