WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The following is Thursday’s status check of developments in the U.S. that can influence economic, health and political outcomes:
In the latter half of August, all kinds of news. Another former top aide to the president indicted. A 77-year-old white man accepts the nomination to be president. A coronal mass ejection – a solar storm of radiation – seemed to have missed the Earth. And what’s the big story, the one that might still reside prominently in the archives a year from now?
Is it the overhanging shadow of the coronavirus infecting its way into every corner of American life, causing another massive number of layoffs tallied in the morning report on fresh claims for unemployment benefits?
If Joe Biden is president in a year, will they say it was easy. After all, Donald Trump had a few more than 170,000 dead from the virus on his watch, heading for maybe 300,000 by the end of 2020. It was sinking in as Election Day approached how deep are the economic and social wounds left by the virus.
If Donald Trump is president, they’ll say he was saved by 401Ks, by the way on that day Biden accepted the nomination, the stock markets were way ahead for the past three months despite the virus, 21% ahead for the Nasdaq. They’ll say he had the magic touch, gliding over the many potholes he himself created. At his side, Larry Kudlow, who said Thursday for the umpteenth time, this recovery is self sustaining, whatever that meant. No more government help needed? At that point on that Thursday, none was on the way.
Either way in a year the nightmares of August 2020 may have been long forgotten. The fears of a disputed election result, the fears of waves of evictions, of unruly crowds of hungry unemployed people, of social, racial and economic inequalities becoming widening fissures in the national landscape. Will that all be replaced by new nightmares? Or new dreams being realized?
In the dream category, Tesla stock jumped another 6.6% on that Thursday in August 2020 to a record $2001 and change after several days in which day traders had been messaging each other that dream was finished. In January a share was $444 and widely pilloried as overbought. No wonder dreams of near-term vaccines and returns to the favorite restaurant and stadiums can seem totally realistic.
A few years ago he had been secure in his Ivory Tower or whatever they call the job of senior associate dean at Harvard Business School, and now Robert Steven Kaplan was deeply enmeshed in the real world of real outcomes, watching how Texas and the nation was dealing with the virus from his post as head of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank.
In his exclusive interview with Steve Beckner for Mace News, Kaplan acknowledged that several recent economic indicators had been robust yet said the economy is “just not as good as we would have had if we had better control of the virus.” Consumers had pulled back and caused the economy to “stall” somewhat since June.
America the chastened, America the worst in the world for virus deaths, 4.6 times No. 2, Brazil. Nearly three times worse than No. 3, Mexico. Cases per million, more than 17,000 vs. the world’s average, 2,900. More cases per million than all but seven of the 215 countries hit by the virus, and none of those eight big developed economies.
Next to that the rest of the news of the day is mere errata to be. The review of the Phase 1 trade deal will take place soon, China’s Commerce Ministry announced. Last week’s postponement for the big Beidaihe retreat of China’s leadership was just that, only a postponement. Or did Beidaihe really happen this year? So much has changed under Xi Jingping.
Upcoming economic data includes the Markit manufacturing and services composite index for the U.S. at 9:45a ET, following by existing home sales at 10a. The morning’s initial claims report got worse, up above a million again, 135,000 more than the previous week. The accumulated total of those getting benefits instead of paychecks was improved, to “only” 14,844,000. Dwell on that number for a moment, almost 15 million people who used to get paychecks.
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Edited by Denny Gulino (denny@macenews). Content may appear first or exclusively on the Mace News premium service. For real-time email delivery contact tony@macenews.com. Twitter headlines @macenewsmacro.
