WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The following is Friday’s status check of developments in the U.S. that can influence economic, health and political outcomes:
- A week filled with news is over. No more apocalyptic-themed Republican National Convention. The ghost of Hurricane Laura is cutting across the Washington-to-Philadelphia area toward the Atlantic. The Federal Reserve has formalized its bias toward full employment. Minneapolis, Chicago, Kenosha and some other cities remain tinderboxes where demonstrations can morph into arson and looting after dark. Jacob Blake seemed to be recovering from his seven police-inflicted bullet wounds, still paralyzed from the waist down but no longer shackled to his bed. What’s left? Between 40 and 50 Americans dying each hour of the corona virus.
- Events during the past week have chipped away at the credibility of the government expert voices on the corona virus. There was that Sunday evening presidential news conference about the FDA’s emergency use authorization for convalescent plasma where it was said 35 out of one hundred victims could be saved. It turned out at best maybe five. Hard to tell because the data is thin. Then the FDA chief acknowledged those numbers were wrong. Then at the end of the week the FDA chief fired a PR person involved. There was also the stealth change by the CDC in its testing advisory. No need for testing even if exposed if no symptoms. Private sector experts pushed back hard. By the end of the week even the CDC seemed confused along with everyone else.
- There seemed to be a corona virus cautionary tale of sorts from Japan, where Prime Minister Abe stepped down because of a chronic ailment he said was sapping his strength. He had already been turned into a lame duck by his low approval ratings. Many were unhappy at how he handled the coronavirus. Japan has a few more than 1,200 fatalities. The U.S. at least 181,300 (NYT Tracker). Related, the yen strengthened sending dollar/yen down through the day, a move reinforced by the perception of a more dovish Fed.
- At week’s end the national mood was still conflicted about the current state of affairs and the future. How serious can it be that the White House emissaries and the Speaker of the House can’t move forward on more virus relief when the U.S. stock markets are well ahead of where they were when the pandemic forced a lockdown of the economy? In fact, for stocks its been the best August since 1986. How serious is it when the president and the Speaker of the House clearly despise each other? How concerned should we be when another million plus people are forced to apply for unemployment benefits as they did this week. MGM hotels, resorts and casinos said Friday they are laying off 18,000.
- Looking ahead to next Friday’s monthly jobs report, what factor could push the unemployment rate higher when so many forecasters expect it to go lower? As Kevin Kastner explained in his MaceNews.com preview of the upcoming week’s data, the July report’s mid-month snapshot will have missed a lot that happened late in the month and, of course, nothing from August. What could edge the 10.2% unemployment rate higher is a surge of reentrants to the labor force, prompted to look for new jobs by the end of the $600 enhancement to jobless benefits. Many newly looking for work – and not finding it – could push the jobless rate higher.
- Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, tweaking China again, looked forward to more trade with Taiwan. Officials said President Trump was making good on his musings about endless wars to cut U.S. troops in Iraq by a third to around 3,500 in the next few months, a level close to that in 2015. Pompeo appeared to shrug off the contempt of Congress proceedings from the House Foreign Affairs Committee, much as Attorney General William Barr did a year ago when he was the target of the entire House.
- Mr. Tesla aka Elon Musk took another step toward robot-proofing human beings or at least, he claims, helping them keep up with developments in artificial intelligence. He unveiled the first edition of Neuralink, something the size of coin that gets implanted in your head, “kind of like a Fitbit in your skull with tiny wires.” He says it’s been successfully tested on a pig.
- The NBA was returning to the courts over the weekend but the boycott, which eventually enlisted the cooperation of ownership, had triggered the most widespread political statement by professional sports ever. The protest of police shootings of unarmed civilians came to encompass women’s basketball, the Major League Baseball, soccer, tennis, football and hockey. Some NBA facilities will serve as polling places.
- Finally, noted Allianz adviser, economist and ubiquitous talking head Mohamed El-Erian, stepping outside his profession Friday night: “So sorry to hear of the passing of Chadwick Bozeman a talented and transformational actor, incredibly sad. A tragic loss, and at such a young age.” The star of “Black Panther,” who portrayed, Jackie Robinson and Thurgood Masrhall, was just 43 and had never let on about his four-year battle with cancer.
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