WASHINGTON (MaceNews) –-The following is Sunday’s status check of developments in the U.S. that can influence economic, health and political outcomes:
On this holiday weekend, instead of the usual recounting of the significant news of the day – of which there is none right now – today’s “Status Check” reflects on a speculative future beyond November:
Looking beyond the election, whoever wins, the path will be rocky, the trajectory not guaranteed. Various industries, like travel, don’t see complete recovery for another three to four years under even optimistic coronavirus assumptions.
If Congress is still split after Election Day there will be a diminished possibility of large public works programs to mitigate what will likely be persistent large unemployment and decaying infrastructure. It would take up to a year at the present rate of hiring to get jobs back to where they were before the pandemic no matter who wins the presidency.
But hiring and rehiring is not going to proceed at the current sharp rebound rate. So, if Joe Biden wins, the overhang of permanently discharged workers, the continuing weight of the pandemic on the economy would ensure that regardless of any vaccine approval, the economic pain will extend perhaps through the entire next four-year presidential term.
That’s also true, of course, if Donald Trump wins. With a Trump victory, however, there are additional negatives many private sector experts warn against.. The massive amount of what his enemies regard as misbehavior will make their top priority a second impeachment. Right, there is no kind of Fifth Amendment double jeopardy protection. Besides, the articles would be different. Depending on the makeup of the post-election Congress, this time Trump’s many foes might know better how to make it stick.
In any event, the mostly blind loyalty of so many Republicans is likely to steadily evaporate since Trump would be increasingly less useful as his second term runs out. Even with the return of a Senate Republican majority, there will be fewer judgeship vacancies to fill and they won’t need any special White House push in installing future Supreme Court justices. Trump’s bravado-laden pledges to rebuild the economy to its former glory will face the realities of the pandemic aftermath, the inertia of entrenched unemployment and the fallout from his chaotic trade and other policies which many say work against economic progress.
The demonization of China instead of a nuanced foreign policy based on broad national interests, the pursuit of tariff relief which has proven to be in large part self-defeating and an embrace of tax policy that ignores the fundamentals of credit market confidence would work against a promised rebound. Banning foreign companies and not developing domestic counterparts, discouraging scientific cooperation across national boundaries, turning away foreign talent and students and destroying post World War II economic and policy alliances abandons a fabric of international leadership that has been a net benefit to America for decades
A more basic Trump characteristic, the reflexive reliance on divisive themes, would further depress national cohesion and morale, cutting into consumer confidence. His deferred priorities, from climate change to social justice and economic equality would continue to erode national dynamism as other developed economies accelerate their comparative progress. vs. the United States.
Post -election, the main questions become: Can the United States be inspired to undertake the fundamental changes, structural productivity-enhancing reforms for the economy and progress toward enlightened social policy, that would be required to increase unity of purpose and strong outcomes? Or will confusion over priorities and the inability to advance the political will to make tough decisions win out, to the disadvantage of America’s future?
Is a Biden win as significant net net as a Democratic victory in the Senate? Is the quality of presidential leadership as important as a unity of purpose restored on Capitol Hill considering the challenges ahead? Is any kind of presidential leadership capable of forging some political cooperation given the momentum of polarization? If Biden is the healing instigator of cooperation, or if Trump is the forceful but arguably not benign presence in the Oval Office can there also emerge with either man a vision of the future that inspires broad confidence and hope? That those questions exist means regardless of who will be in charge, for now and perhaps for a long time to come, the fog of uncertainty is the only certainty. How long will it take to infuse the nation with renewed purpose and a sense of common destiny?
This much is known. With continued high unemployment, radically exacerbated economic inequality, spreading hunger, even a return of sitdown strikes and a resurgent union movement like that initially borne of the Great Depression – plus a growing depression of the American spirit – the future could be bleak regardless of the results of the election or whether those results are delayed days or months.
Other economies, in Asia and even in Europe, could benefit from what in most cases is and will be their better control of the pandemic. Bullet trains, improved airports, wider and faster availability of improved technologies like 5G and greater economic growth other than in America won’t help the national mood here. Even now, WeChat has replaced wallets, displaced insurance and securities sales people, dominated e-commerce and other advertising, is a universal communications medium, gift-giving channel, lottery and along the way incorporates a super-Facebook social network and business ecosystem. And it charges businesses nothing to participate. Is it time for America to look inward?
Yet great challenges can bring forth great leaders, in the White House and on Capitol Hill. A strange Labor Day as the labor market, the economy as a whole and the future seem under dark clouds is the time to be reminded this is not the first time the country has come up against an opaque and threatening tomorrow..
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