–Maybe February for the Next Round of Pandemic Relief
WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The following is Tuesday’s status check of developments in the U.S. that can influence economic, health and political outcomes.
· It was chilly in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, the site of another MAGA rally Tuesday night. More masks than usual. A whole lot about Biden opposing fracking, the obligatory Pennsylvania message. “He’s always been a dummy,” said the president of his opponent. Calling out to “suburban women,” Trump said, “I saved your damned neighborhoods.” Through Donald Trump’s eyes, it’s a Biden few people would recognize. Biden, incidentally, denies he now opposes fracking. Biden had campaigned earlier in the day before a group in contrast kept purposely small for safety’s sake, where he repeated Trump’s “chaotic and divisive leadership” has cost far too many lives. And Biden’s polls in battleground Michigan keep improving. Earlier in Philly, Rudy Giuliani campaigned inside before an Italians for Trump rally, part of the Operation MAGA all-hands-on deck effort. “People don’t die of this disease anymore,” he said, adding Democrats make a big deal about the virus just to frighten people. The U.S. death toll through Tuesday, 215,700 (NYT Tracker). Another attendee of that White House Rose Garden event Saturday a week ago, the wife of Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia, has tested positive. So, nothing much new with three weeks to go. On Wednesday Trump addresses the Economic Clubs of New York, Florida, Washington, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Sheboygan, all at the same time, electronically, from the Rose Garden.
· It all begs for a view from 30,000 feet and, fortunately, twice a year there is one provided by the International Monetary Fund, now in the midst of a virtual IMF-World Bank annual meeting. Gina Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, held a news conference after the release of the latest World Economic Outlook, It had shown a mild upgrade – meaning smaller declines – in many countries’ growth rates and a global growth rate this year of -4.4% instead of the previously estimated -5.2%. The estimate for the U.S. is for an economy shrinking by 4.3%. Europe is worse, at -8.3%. China is unique among large economies. Its economy is expanding this year by 1.9%, the benefit of a nearly fully functioning economy along with a claimed control of the pandemic. Anyway, Ms. Gopinath said, “The ascent out of this calamitous Great Lockdown is likely to be long, uneven, and highly uncertain.” She added, “It is therefore essential that fiscal and monetary policy support are not prematurely withdrawn.” And what’s new about the next round of U.S. fiscal support? Despite the faith of stock market investors that it’s on the way it’s looking more and more like February, with the size to be determined by the political makeup of Congress and the White House. Actually investor faith seemed to have faltered just a bit Tuesday with a stocks close slightly on the negative side. The IMF’s Gopinath warned, “This is the worst crisis since the great depression, and it will take significant innovation on the policy front at both the national level and the international level to recover.”
· The chance of any government pandemic relief may be fading for now, but the White House did establish something called the “One Trillion Trees Interagency Council” Tuesday. Cabinet members are members of the new Council, dedicated to the goal established by the World Economic Forum to plant 1 trillion trees worldwide.
· Judge Amy Coney Barrett resumes answering or refusing to answer questions of the Senate Judiciary Committee Wednesday having made clear she isn’t providing any hints about whether she has any opinion about just about anything, including about whether President Trump has the power he claims to have to pardon himself for crimes past and future. It was all part of what appeared to neutral observers to be a flawless performance for someone who dare not violate the so-called Ginsburg rule: “No hints, no previews, no forecasts.” Each member has 30 minutes to either bemoan, if they were Democrats, how they felt she would rule on Obamacare and Roe v. Wade, if it ever came up or, if they were Republicans, to marvel at her impeccable credentials and reputation.
· Upcoming economic statistics include the MBA’s weekly tally of new mortgage applications, at 7a ET and the latest Producer Price Index is at 8:30a. The morning’s CPI was right on expectations, as Kevin Kastner details elsewhere on this macenews.com site.
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