WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The following is Thursday’s status check of developments in the U.S. that can influence economic, health and political outcomes.
- It would be the biggest accomplishment of the House Problem Solvers Caucus, to be the catalyst for the passage of a pandemic relief package. The approximately half a hundred Republicans and Democrats who want to distinguish themselves by being willing to compromise to get something done would likely add members as their goal became less utopian, by being able to claim some part of the success. For now, though, they are shrinking. Republican Paul Mitchell, representing Michigan’s 10th District, between Saginaw Bay and Lake Huron, made it known he can’t swallow the part of their $902 billion proposal that would go to Democratic-led states and cities. He thinks it’s an empty threat to say first responders are going to be laid off.
- What are the chances the Problem Solver’s $902 billion proposal will fly? Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi, House Speaker, and Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader, have now become big fans, abandoning their previous proffer that would have cost $1.2 trillion, which was less than the Heroes Act’s $2.2 trillion. That may be just to put additional pressure on Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell. His last proposal was about $300 billion, something he said President Trump told him he would sign. President Trump, asked about it after giving coach Lou Holtz the Presidential Medal of Freedom in the afternoon, was asked a generic question about whether he would sign something and he said he would. A lot of the Problem Solvers’ proposal is money repurposed from the CARES Act, including $140 billion from the expired Paycheck Protection Program, cutting the actual cost. McConnell, on the Senate floor in the morning, and in other remarks in the afternoon, said he thinks there has been progress toward an agreement. He even said he had a good talk with Pelosi. But as the ultimate gatekeeper, he has not tipped his hand yet. No one knows how big a package he would put on the Senate floor where a couple dozen of his Republican colleagues want no pandemic relief.
- The Lame Duck session of Congress is running out of time. The positive side of that is that bills are being passed, even being sent to the White House for the president’s signature. One of those measures would delist from U.S. exchanges any China firm that resisted some regulatory disclosures for three years. That’s not such a big problem for China any more now that Asian exchanges have matured. It could become a big problem for U.S. exchanges in the years ahead as they scrape for listings. There is a deadline in eight days for a massive omnibus funding legislation necessary to keep government operating Dec. 12. The pandemic relief would be tacked on to it. No time left for a separate pandemic measure.
- President-Elect Joe Biden, in his interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper Thursday night, repeated he would like Congress to pass some pandemic relief as soon as possible even though whatever its size, it won’t be big enough. Left unsaid is that the chances of another pandemic package after Inauguration Day depends on those Senate runoff elections in Georgia. Right now, with the swearing in of Democrat Mark Kelly, the Republican margin of control is so thin Federal Reserve Board nominee Judy Shelton could not make it through. St. Louis Fed research director Chris Waller, though, did make it past the Senate to the Fed Board earlier in the day, barely, 45 to 47.
- Besides the budget legislation, another must-pass measure is the National Defense Authorization Act and despite the president’s insistence it include an unrelated measure taking away social media’s liability protection, it will pass even if a veto has to be overridden. After months of negotiations, the Senate and House leadership is not going to let a lame-duck president’s veto get in the way.
- Speaking of the president, his bullying pulpit is getting less and less attention, as seen by the way he slips down the news agenda of the big network nightly news broadcasts. Wednesday night he didn’t get a mention by NBC’s Lester Holt, for instance, until 10 minutes into the program. For Thursday night’s broadcast it was 12 minutes in.
- The pandemic itself seems to be racing the distribution of vaccines, already generating record deaths and hospitalizations even as the post-Thanksgiving surge is just getting under way. The first 3,000-death day seems not far away, having topped 2,700 Wednesday.
- Upcoming economic statistics has the month’s shining star, the jobs report at 8:30a ET. The consensus expectation for payrolls growth is somewhere around 500,000, quite a bit less than in October. The Thursday morning report on initial claims showed that the contingent of Americans forced to accept the benefits was running around 20 million at last check. The most recent claims total was better, that is lower, than the preceding week but still at levels worse than in the financial crisis. There’s also an international trade balance report at 8:30a and factory orders at 10a.
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Contact this reporter: denny@macenews.com.
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