WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – It’s time for Christmas already, and the holiday and the fact Christmas Eve is now a federal holiday as well has rearranged some of the week’s data reports.
Yet with the possible exception of the weekly claims report, now coming Wednesday morning, very little if any of the week’s data is expected to add much clarity to the fourth quarter’s economy, soon to enter the history books.
Should layoffs continue to worsen, the current slowdown only gets deeper and the outlook for the first quarter more muddied. The past week’s claims, at 885,000, got uncomfortably close to a million.as the tally has gotten worse four of the past five weeks. In fact, they are already worse according to the unadjusted number, 935,138.
Otherwise it’s evident forecasters are flying blind, hampered by the inadequate methodologies of the government statistics that prevent them from bing anything close to a timely picture of what’s happening.
Without more granular and faster measurements, even the Federal Reserve struggles. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow last sees an 11.1% reading for the fourth quarter. The NY Fed’s GDP Nowcast sees 2.4% and the St. Louis Fed, 4.38%.
In addition to the third revision of third-quarter GDP, Tuesday’s schedule includes existing home sales and the Philly Fed nonmanufacturing index.
The durable goods orders report from the Census Bureau is also now on Wednesday at the same time as initial claims, 8:30a. In October the report was better than expected, part of a six-month string of increases, but with signs momentum has faded somewhat.
At the same time as durable goods and claims is released the October report on personal income will reveal the latest savings rate, seen as the fuel for spending in the first quarter along with whatever Congress grants in the way of pandemic relief. Savings was still in double digits, a 13.6% rate, in October. Everyone remembers when it was a stratospheric 33.7% in April.
Also crammed into Wednesday’s schedule is the University of Michigan final sentiment reading of the month and new home sales,
Upcoming week’s economic data:
Monday: Chicago Midwest Mfg Index
Tuesday:3rd revision 3Q GDP, Philly Fed Mfg Index, Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed index, consumer confidence.
Wednesday:MBA Mtg Apps, Personal Income, Initial Claims, Durable Goods Orders (moved day earlier), FHFA Home Price Index, New Home Sales, Final UMich sentiment, EIA oil stocks, Baker-Hughes oil rigs, Atl Fed GDPNow
Separately, from Extract Analytics, next week’s SPX, after this week’s gains, means watching Tesla, the index’s newest entrant:
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