STATUS CHECK COMMENTARY: RISKS OF BACKLASH/BACKFIRE HAUNT DISSIDENT SENATORS

WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The following is Tuesday’s status check of developments in the U.S. that can influence economic, health and political outcomes.

  • Thirteen senators who will challenge Electoral College votes Wednesday are betting on the persistence of public opinion, at least that of the Trumpist base they’re appealing to, so that during their long terms on Capitol Hill they won’t ultimately find themselves enshrined in a monument to stupidity, seditious behavior and shortsightedness. That may be a riskier bet than it appears now while President Trump still enjoys the power of  his office, before the halo effect of the Oval Office fades. After the contention of Wednesday boils away as just so much more of the opaque maneuverings in a Congress few people follow closely, as points of order quench the fiery repetition of baseless claims, all that will be left is Trump himself, not a coherent set of policies that anyone is wedded to. History isn’t kind to the longevity of personality, specially when it’s not supercharged by immense personal power. After Trump flees to Turnberry, if he can persuade Scottish authorities to let him in during the pandemic clampdowns, or if he retreats to Mar a Lago, if the neighborhood drops its challenge to his living arrangements, the mantle of power will have passed to Joe Biden. The shrill declarations of Monday night in Dalton, Ga. of an oncoming rush of “Socialist, Communist and radical left” restrictions on churches and guns will not have come to pass. Soon the Biden administration will be associated with some moves that might appeal even to the MAGA-hatted masses. The calculated obstructionism in the House and Senate may deteriorate into pesky crankiness without the intensity of a Trump pilot light. Perhaps the 13 will look back and wonder if they shouldn’t have taken their cue from Tom Cotton. In distancing himself from the Wednesday insurrection, he’s making a different kind of bet on who he can inherit as backers once the Trump presence is no more.
  • What about the 140 or so House Republicans who will be part of the effort? House members know too well how ephemeral is their hold on the spotlight. A relatively few hours on center stage won’t make much difference to anyone.
  • Georgia election officials hope for some definitive runoff results by Wednesday morning. If the Democratic reach for control of the Senate falls short, there will be a resignation to the same gritty arm wrestling with Mitch McConnell that’s long been the status quo, not necessarily a demoralization. If Democrats do place Chuck Schumer in the majority leader’s seat, however, the asymmetric reaction will be elation and rejuvenation so that anything will seem possible, at least for a while. The demoralization will be on the Republican side and the resulting truculence and resentment may block that infrastructure and jobs deal, at least for a while.
  • As night falls, the demonstration-hardened District of Columbia police department, augmented by nearly 350 unarmed National Guard, may be tested. Veterans of anarchists throwing themselves under moving cars while opposing international policymaking, or the more passive Occupy Wall Street folks, camped out everywhere, this time they will be following bands of Proud Boys schooled in recent days how to disguise outlawed firearms and themselves, so they can more easily pick fights with Black Lives Matter adherents and maybe, find their prize, antifa targets. Angry crowds summoned by President Trump will be the easy part, familiar presences on the National Mall, hoping their hero will drive by in his motorcade. By Thursday it will be only two weeks until Inauguration Day. The pandemic dead and dying will be the transcendant reality, no longer, perhaps, the moods of President Trump.

Contact this reporter: denny@macenews.com

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