By Silvia Marchetti
ROME (MaceNews) – Italy faces the risk of a government crisis right in the middle of an unprecedented pandemic as the minor Italia Viva party threatens to pull out of the ruling coalition if a new ruling pact isn’t reached.
A meeting scheduled on Tuesday between coalition parties will be showdown time for Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, who is at odds with the Italia Viva leader, the former PM Matteo Renzi, over ways to handle direct EU-wide aid, according to coalition sources.
Italia Viva officials are calling for a “radical change” in government strategy and a “new deal” among allies to continue ruling together up to the end of the legislature in 2023. Italia Viva sources complain Italy is lagging in defining and presenting the plan to Brussels, and without a clear and agreed plan, Europe won’t provide the funds.
“We want a comprehensive agreement over the EU-wide Recovery Plan set up by the European Commission to tackle the pandemic,” said an Italia Viva source, adding, “Italy could get up to roughly EUR 200 billion but so far there is no clear roadmap on where and how these key funds will be used, with the risk that Italy could fail to meet the EU deadline and lose a golden opportunity.”
Renzi’s group is also urging its coalition allies to tap into the European Stability Mechanism fund for health spending that could support Italy with an extra EUR 20-30 billion. The ESM use is opposed by the 5 Stars Movement and Conte has always taken an ambiguous stance on deploying the ESM funds.
Failure to reach an agreement between allies on how to manage the government for another two years could trigger a government collapse. If it’s a ‘no-deal’ scenario and Renzi’s party withdraws support to Conte, and no alternative majority is found in parliament with other groups, Italy could face the risk of an early vote during the pandemic emergency.
Sources within the Democrat party and the 5 Stars Movement stress that there is no alternative to Conte’s government or to the existing majority, but while the 5 Stars fear an early vote could hurt them, the Democrats are more open.
“All scenarios are possible, and I wouldn’t exclude even the worst case one of a new vote. True, it would be crazy to hold elections in full pandemic but, then again, the fight against COVID-19 requires a strong, stable government able to steer the country out of this emergency. And now we’re in a stalemate, it’s a narrow road towards a potential compromise,” said a Democrat party source.
The best-case scenario would be a light government reshuffle with the creation of a specific Recovery plan ministry that monitors efficient investment of EU aid, the sources said.
Another key factor raises the risk of political crisis in the short run. In July, Italy will enter the so-called ‘white semester’ mode required by the constitution which precedes the election of a new head of state. During the white semester, parliament can’t be dissolved for an election.
Sources argued it would be best to solve the aid dispute now even if it meant a reshuffle or a different government supported by an unlikely alternative majority, rather than getting stuck in the white semester and being forced to carry on with a governing coalition unable to rule effectively or efficiently invest the EU funds.
The mandate of Italy’s head of state, Sergio Mattarella, expires at the end of January 2022, and a vote could only occur after the appointment of his successor or if Mattarella’s reappointment is confirmed.
An Italia Viva source said that “if things aren’t working now, better end it as soon as possible than drag it on for another whole year. We can’t afford to lose time and fail to properly use the Recovery plan funds, which is a historic milestone for Italy.”