WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The week ahead includes the latest consumer inflation rate, another month of business inflation that in March was running super hot, the April retail sales report and a more than ample supply of FedSpeak.
Is any of it as anxiously anticipated nearly as much as the appearance of Elon Musk on “Saturday Night Live?” Maybe not. And will any evoke as much surprise as the April jobs report? Again, probably not.
The more than a dozen appearances by Federal Reserve governors and regional bank presidents are unlikely to advance the discussion of any eventual tapering, particularly since Dallas Fed’s Robert Kaplan isn’t scheduled to repeat that it’s actually time to talk about talking about it.
The latest lesson from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that you can never confidently extrapolate payrolls from previous months suddenly deflated the bubbles of tapering fear emanating from all directions in the past week.
Forecasters had expected a million or more addition to payrolls but were robbed of their dream by, what else? – seasonal adjustment. Because before adjustment payrolls did increase by 1.089 million. The measly 266,000 after adjustment would have been gangbusters before the pandemic. How could they have been fooled when weekly jobless benefit claims have improved so much, to only 498,000 in the latest week? It’s all relative. That’s actually a big bunch of new claims, even if it’s below half a million for the first time during the pandemic.
Next Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index may generate a relatively stratospheric consumer inflation rate, given in March the core rate jumped well above 2% after years below. As Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen patiently explained to reporters at the White House news briefing Friday, there are those “base effects,” otherwise known as year-over-year comps. There are also supply disruptions that drive up prices. She repeated Fed Chair Jay Powell’s “transitory” mantra and the Treasury market gave its blessing in keeping the benchmark 10-year yield safely contained below 1.6%.
The April retail sales report next Friday probably won’t reach the March rocket ride up 9.8% because even the March report doesn’t live up to that original number any more after annual revisions April 26. OK, so chopping a tenth to 9.7% isn’t much of a revision. Nevertheless, it’s a tall order to approach double-digit increases even with massive pent-up demand.
Overall, as Yellen said, the underlying strength of the economy is probably stronger than indicated by the jobs slowdown, which as noted, in unadjusted terms wasn’t really a slowdown. And in this new era of astronomical rates of appreciation – i.e. Dogecoin – the bottom line for at least some investors is no longer economic growth, the real economy, production, consumption, demand and supply. Dogecoin started as a joke and now its holders – who can afford to care less for all those suddenly irrelevant economic metrics – can ask, who’s laughing now? Year to date it’s up 13,453%
Dogecoin three-month escalation – source, copyright Coinbase:
The upcoming week’s economic data points and Fed events are listed below:
Upcoming Economic Data and Federal Reserve Events
Monday, May 10 – 8:30a ET ChiFed’s Evans speaks on CNBC
Monday, May 10 – 2p ChiFed’s Evans speaks, SABEW
Tuesday, May 11 – 6a ET US NFIB Small Biz Optimism Index (101 expected)
Tuesday, May 11 – 8:55a Redbook wkly same-store retail activity
Tuesday, May 11 – 10a US BLS March JOLTS job openings, hiring (7,5 mln expected)
Tuesday, May 11 – 10:30a NYFed’s Williams speaks. SOFR Symposium
Tuesday, May 11 – 12 noon Fed Gov Brainard speaks, SABEW
Tuesday, May 11 – 1p SanFranFed’s Daly speaks, Community Bankers
Tuesday, May 11 – 1:15p AtlFed’’s Bostic speaks, Rotary
Tuesday, May 11 – 2p Philly Fed’s Harker speaks, CFA Society
Wednesday, May 12 – 7a US MBA wkly mortgage apps
Wednesday, May 12 – 8:30a US Apr CPI (3.6% Y/Y expected/ core 2.3%)
Wednesday, May 12 – 9:00 Fed Vice Chair Clarida speaks, NABE
Wednesday, May 12 – 10:30a US EIA oil stocks
Wednesday, May 12 – 1p AtlFed’s Bostic speaks, CFR
Wednesday, May 12 – 2p Philly Fed’s Harker speaks, IHE
Wednesday, May 12 – 2p US Tsy MTS
Thursday, May 12 – 8:30a US Apr PPI (0,3% M/M expected)
Thursday, May 12 – 8:30a US wkly initial jobless benefit claims
Thursday, May 12 – 11a NYFed Q1 Household Debt/Credit Rpt
Thursday, May 12 – 1p – Fed Gov Waller speaks, GIC
Thursday, May 12 – StLouFed’s Bullard speaks, Memphis CofC
Friday, May 13 – 8:30a US Apr import prices
Friday, May 13 – US Apr retail sales (+0.5% M/M expected)
Friday, May 13 – 9:15a – Fed’s industrial production
Friday, May 13 – 10a UMich consumer sentiment (90 expected)
Friday, May 13 – 10a US March business inventories
Friday, May 13 – 1p Baker-Hughes rig count
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Contact this report: denny@macenews.com.
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