WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – A modest amount of new data this week includes housing sales and a new look at August’s consumer attitudes that went sour in the preliminary University of Michigan report.
There is a revised GDP figure Thursday with an upward recalibration expected. Another PCE inflation reading on Friday and then, at 10a ET, the week’s main event, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s speech.
He won’t be present at the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium. No one will, after Teton County, Wyoming, slipped into a red alert on virus cases and forced the Fed to tell everyone to stay home. So no barbecue, no interviews on the sidelines and an underlining of the continuing threat of the Delta variant.
Will Powell and the other core Federal Open Market Committee participants actually pull the trigger on tapering next month as so many have persuaded themselves will happen? Among the non-core folks pressing for sooner, Dallas Fed’s Robert Kaplan wavered a little in the past week, acknowledging the virus’s new aggressiveness could mean delay.
And will Powell highlight the simple fact that all those job openings, the record 10.1 million in the June JOLTS report so many have found so impressive, are mostly irrelevant? Because they aren’t jobs. For whatever reason, and there are many, the job openings are not becoming paychecks and becoming the significant step toward full employment they could be.
Which brings us to the mess that is Afghanistan, where the weekend news of a 2-year-old crushed to death along with many adults as desperation grows at Kabul’s airport says it all.
Having squandered, or more generously, been forced to relinquish its post-Trump momentum, can this White House crew any longer be granted the assumption of competence that would guide the important decision about Powell that’s about to be made? Can it be assumed the key Fed post after February will be filled in the way most appropriate to this era of deep uncertainty?
The economic data holds none of the most important answers. The upcoming reports are listed below.
UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA AND FEDERAL RESERVE EVENTS
Monday, Aug 23 – 8:30a ChiFed Nat’l Activity Index (NFCAI prvs +0.09)
Monday, Aug 23 – 9:45a ET – US Markit Aug prelim Mfg/Svcs PMIs (63.1 <fg exected)
Monday, Aug 23– 10a ET – US NAR July existing home sales (unch expected; June +1.4%)
Monday, Aug 23 – 10a RichmondFed Mfg Index (prvs 27)
Tuesday, Aug 24 – 8:55a ET Redbook wkly retail activity (Prvs )
Tues, Aug 24 – 10a ET – US July New Home Sales (+3.6% expected; June -6.6%)
Wednesday, Aug 25 – 7a ET US MBA wkly mortgage apps (prvs -2.8%)
Wednesday, Aug 25 – 8:30a ET US July durable goods orders (+0.8% expected; June +0.8%)
Wednesday, Aug 25 – 10:30a ET US EIA Wkly oil stocks (prvs -3.2 mln bls)
Thursday, Aug 26 – 8:30a ET Wkly initial jobless benefit claims (prvs )
Thursday, Aug 27 – 8:30a ET revised 2Q US GDP (6.7% expected; adv 2Q +6.5%)
Thursday, Aug 27 – 11a ET Kansas City Fed Mfg Index (July +30)
Thursday, Aug 27 – 2p ET Census Buro webinar on new retail sales rpt
Friday, Aug 28 – 8:30a ET US July personal income (June +0.1%)
Friday, Aug 28 – 8:30a ET US Int’l advance trade in goods
Friday, Aug 28 – 10a ET Fed Chair Powell’s address to Jackson Hole symposium
Friday, Aug 28 – 10a ET UMich final Aug consumer sentiment (prelim Aug 70.2)
Friday, Aug 28 – 1p ET Baker-Hughes oil rig count (prev US +3/503)
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Contact this writer: denny@macenews.com. Opinions expressed are solely those of the author.
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