–BOC Brings Forward Rate Hike Timing From 2nd Half 2022 on Economic Pickup
–BOC Revises Up 2022 CPI Forecast Sharply Higher, Slashes 2021 GDP Projection
–Central Bank Keeps 0.25% Policy Rate As Expected But Ends Asset Purchases
By Max Sato
(MaceNews) – The Bank of Canada left its record-low policy interest rate unchanged Wednesday but revised its inflation forecast for 2022 sharply higher, predicting its first rate hike during the current accommodative cycle may come a few months earlier than previously thought.
As the economy reopens and the energy-led spike in consumer prices lingers, BOC policymakers now see a rate hike in the middle of next year, earlier than its previous forecast that such unwinding of monetary stimulus would come in the second half of 2022.
“In Canada, robust economic growth has resumed, following a pause in the second quarter,” the bank said. “Strong employment gains in recent months were concentrated in hard-to-distance sectors and among workers most affected by lockdowns.”
The bank’s Governing Council announced Wednesday that it is holding the target for overnight lending rates at 0.25% to support economic recovery, as expected, but it also said the bank is ending quantitative easing and moving into the reinvestment phase by purchasing government bonds “solely to replace maturing bonds.”
In its previous policy announcement last month, the council had maintained the pace of weekly asset purchases at C$2 billion after reducing it from C$3 billion in July.
The bank repeated its assessment that Canada’s economic recovery still needs “extraordinary monetary policy support,” indicating its overall accommodative policy stance will continue for now.
“We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved,” it said.
“In the bank’s projection, this happens sometime in the middle quarters of 2022.” Previously, the bank had said the timing would be “in the second half of 2022.”
Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem told reporters after the report was published that with strong ongoing demand the output gap is closing faster, and leaves excess demand extending into mid 2022.
He said he sees a strong second half recovery despite the global supply chain being disrupted worse than had been expected yet which might reach peak disruption in this quarter.
On rates, he reiterated the Bank would expect to consider raising rates earlier than previously anticipated when the output gap closes, perhaps in mid 2022. Meanwhile he is watching closely to see if inflation expectations rise, something he is not seeing so far.
In its latest quarterly Monetary Policy Report released Wednesday, the Bank of Canada said the recent surge in consumer prices poses a greater risk to its effort to anchor inflation around 2% in its target range of 1% to 3%.
“Given persistent supply constraints and the increase in energy prices, the bank expects inflation to stay above the control range for longer than previously anticipated, before easing back to close to the 2 percent target by late 2022.”
The bank no longer described the recent surge in inflation as “transitory.”
The BOC said risks around its inflation outlook are “roughly balanced” but warned that above-target inflation is expected to “stay there for some time” and that “the upside risks are of greater concern.”
The central bank lowered its GDP forecast for this year to 5.1% from 6.0% projected in the July report in light of lingering supply chain disruptions and labor shortage. The bank sees 4.3% growth in 2022, revised down from 4.6 percent forecast three months ago and 3.7% expansion in 2023, revised up from 3.3 percent previously.
The bank also projected that the pandemic-caused supply constraints and higher energy costs would leave high inflation “for the rest of 2021 and into 2022,” revising up its forecast for consumer price increases to 3.4% for this year from 3.0% projected in July, and raising its 2022 forecast by a full percentage point to 3.4% from 2.4% made three months ago.
The bank expects inflation to ease to 2.3% (vs. 2.2% forecast in July) in 2023 as “the economy moves into excess demand before returning gradually toward target in 2024.”
“Disruptions to global supply chains have intensified, limiting the production of some goods and leading to both higher costs and higher prices,” the bank said. “Although the impact and persistence of these supply factors are difficult to quantify, they suggest the output gap is likely narrower than projected in July.”
The bank expects the Canadian economy to grow by about 4.75% in the second half of 2021, much stronger than the average pace of around 2.2% in the first half of the year.
“Consumption is leading the recovery, with a rebound in spending on in-person services combining with the already-elevated level of goods purchases,” the bank said in the report.
The Canadian economy unexpectedly shrank 1.1% at an annualized rate in the April-June quarter but monthly GDP data showed that it fell just 0.1% in July from June and Statistics Canada estimates the economy rebounded 0.7% on the month in August.
The consumer price index jumped 4.4% on the year in September, the fastest pace since February 2003 and up from a 4.1% gain in August. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 3.5% year over year in September.
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Contact this reporter: max@macenews.com
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