By Max Sato
(MaceNews) – Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida late on Thursday denied he was considering dissolving the lower house of parliament during the current 150-day ordinary Diet session ending on June 21 but expectations for a snap election this year, possibly in the fall, remain alive.
Kishida’s recent remarks had stirred speculation that he was set to call general elections by dissolving the lower chamber this week to counter a no-confidence motion against his cabinet planned to be submitted on Friday by the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.
Kishida, who took office in October 2021, is under pressure to shore up voter support. A news report that his son (then his secretary, sacked recently) held a private party at the prime minister’s Official Residence in December has put a damper on public approval ratings of his cabinet, which had been propped up by the notion that Kishida solidified unity among the Group of Seven leaders at the Hiroshima summit last month.
The government has also come under fire for various glitches in the new national identification system that have raised concerns about its security.
The prime minister is seeking to win support from various factions among his conservative ruling Liberal Democratic Party for his reelection as the party leader in September 2024, when his three-year term ends.
“I am not thinking about dissolving (the lower house) during the current session of the Diet,” Kishida told reporters on Thursday evening. He was about to say he was not considering doing so “at this point” but quickly changed his comment to make the timeframe clearer.
Kishida said the government is focused on urgent issues including helping firms raise wages further, enhancing child support programs and addressing global geopolitical risks.
Speculation of an early snap election emerged on Tuesday, when Kishida said he would decide when to dissolve the lower house after assessing “various circumstances.” Previously, he had said he was “not considering” calling a general election “for now.”
The hint that Kishida dropped about using his authority to dissolve the lower chamber and calling a general election triggered criticism from some members of parliament, from both the ruling and opposition parties.
Kishida’s LDP and its coalition partner Komeito are likely to be able to vote down the planned no-confidence motion because of their majority (combined 294 seats) in the 465-seat House of Representatives.
Despite the low possibility of ousting the government, the opposition bloc still intends to challenge the ruling parties with a no-confidence motion toward the end of a regular parliamentary session if it disagrees with the ruling bloc on key issues discussed at parliamentary committees. Among the opposition camp, the Japanese Communist Party is expected to vote in favor of the motion, but two conservative groups, the Japan Innovation Party, and the Democratic Party for the People, are likely to vote against it.
The current four-year terms for lower house members end in October 2025, which means calling an election now would be a little too early as it has been less than two years since the last election, even though all but one of the 26 general elections held under the current post-war Constitution have been called before the end of the terms.
Possible timing of Kishida calling lower house elections is in October after he attends the summit of the Group of 20 industrialized and emerging economies in New Delhi on Sept. 9-10 and the United Nations General Assembly toward the end of September, the Mainichi Shimbun newspaper reported Thursday, echoing general expectations seen in news media.
If the prime minister were to call a snap election in 2024, it could be just before the 150-day ordinary session of the Diet begins in January or around the LDP party leadership election in September, the Mainichi said.
The public approval rating of the Kishida cabinet fell to 43% of those polled in a three-day telephone survey conducted by the public broadcaster NHK through Sunday, down from 46% in NHK’s poll taken last month. The disapproval rating rose to 37% from 31 %.
A similar weekend survey by Jiji Press also showed that the public approval rating slipped to 35.1% from 38.2% last month while disapproval rating rose to 35.0% from 31.8%.