By Max Sato
(MaceNews) – Sentiment among companies in Canada declined for the fifth straight quarter in January-March after last year’s aggressive interest rate hikes by major central banks have led to slower global demand amid easing but sticky inflation and tight labor conditions, the Bank of Canada’s quarterly Business Outlook Survey released Monday showed.
The broad-based decline across regions and sectors reflects expectations for slower price growth and an easing in capacity pressures from exceptionally high levels, due in part to improved supply conditions, the bank said.
“But pressures on prices and capacity — including labour — remain. As they did last quarter, firms expect slower sales growth,” it said.
In the latest conducted from Feb. 6 to Feb. 24, firms “continue to express considerable concern over cost pressures, labour shortages and uncertainties stemming from high interest rates and inflation,” the bank said.
The bank’s business indicator fell to minus 1.1 in the first three months of 2023 from 0.06 (revised from 0.07) in the final quarter of 2022. It is the first negative figure since the third quarter of 2020 (minus 2.62) and well below the record high of 5.91 hit in the fourth quarter of 2021. The entire time series of the indicator is revised after every release.
The indicator plunged to minus 6.33 in April-June 2020 from minus 0.82 in the previous quarter (the first negative figure in three quarters) during the first wave of the pandemic.
Interviews for the Business Outlook Survey were conducted before pressures on the global banking system increased in early March. Results from the Business Leaders’ Pulse suggest that business sentiment has not changed much since then, according to the bank.
Firms’ inflation expectations over the next two years have moderated to 3.9% from 4.2% in the previous survey, but most businesses still think inflation will stay well above 2% until at least 2025, the bank said.
Of the firms that expect inflation to be back to 2% before 2025, many think the return will be the result of monetary policy actions the bank has taken over the past 12 months.
BOC Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle said in a speech last week that it is too early to discuss normalizing the bank’s high policy interest rate because consumer inflation at 5.2% remains well above its 2% target, although it has eased from its recent peak of 8.1% hit last June.
In its latest policy decision on March 8, the bank left its policy interest rate — the target for overnight lending rates — at 4.50%, as widely expected, but stressed that it is not lowering its guard against upside risks to inflationary pressures as labor market conditions remain “very tight” and consumer spending is resilient.
BOC policymakers have said it is a “conditional pause” in monetary tightening.
In the latest business survey, the bank said, “For many firms, this slowdown will follow a period of exceptional strength over the past year. Businesses also link their expectations of weaker sales growth to interest rate increases, high inflation and concern about a recession.”
Some firms, mostly those whose sales depend on housing activity and household consumption, expect outright sales declines, but the share of these firms is smaller than in the previous survey.
Generally, businesses plan to invest more in the next 12 months, the bank said but added that positive investment intentions have decreased in each quarter since early 2022, “reflecting the impact of higher interest rates and recession worries.”
Firms continue to view the labour market as tight, though labour shortages and wage growth pressures have eased. Demand for labour has softened over the past several quarters but continues to be robust — more than half of firms still plan to increase their workforce over the next 12 months.
Businesses anticipate that their input and output price increases over the next year will remain larger and more frequent than usual, but as supply and demand continue to normalize, firms expect the size and pace of output price increases to moderate from those over the past 12 months.
“This suggests that firms are gradually shifting closer to their normal price-setting practices,” the bank said.
In its quarterly survey of consumer expectations for January-March, the bank said expectations for inflation one to two years ahead have fallen but remain well above their levels from before the Covid-19 pandemic.
“Consumers’ expectations for growth in prices of some goods have edged down, although their price growth expectations for services such as rent have remained high,” the bank said.
“Most Canadians see a recession as the most likely scenario for the economy in the next 12 months,” it said. “But many are uncertain about where the economy and labour market are going. Consumers who are more uncertain are planning to spend less and save more as a precaution.”
This survey was conducted between Jan. 27 and Feb. 16. Follow-up interviews took place in March.
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Contact this reporter: max@macenews.com
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