–BOC: Firms’ Inflation Outlook Now in Bank’s 1-to-3% Inflation-Control Range
–Firms’ Inflation Expectations Over Next 2 Years Unchanged at 3.0% in Q2 Poll
–Monthly Business Leaders’ Pulse Survey: 1-Year Inflation Outlook Falls to 2.9% from 3.3% in April, May
–Consumers’ 1-Year Inflation Views Ease to 4.09% from 4.92% in Q1 but 2-Year Outlook Higher 3.91% Vs. 3.76%
By Max Sato
(MaceNews) – Sentiment among companies in Canada remains more pessimistic than average in April-June after improving slightly in the previous two quarters as continued weak demand and high borrowing costs have discouraged capacity expansion and also led to easing labor conditions and lower near-term inflation expectations among firms and consumers, the Bank of Canada’s quarterly Business Outlook Survey (BOS) released Monday showed.
Looking at near-term inflation expectations among firms, the bank said they are now in its inflation-control range of between 1% to 3%.
Ahead of their next policy rate announcement on July 24, the bank’s policymakers will monitor more indicators, particularly the June CPI data on Tuesday, to discuss whether economic conditions will allow the bank to lower interest rates further soon, after conducting its first rate since March 2020 in June. Economists expect the bank will have to make a tough decision, either to trim its policy rate next week or wait until September.
The business outlook indicator fell to minus 2.90 in the second quarter after rising to minus 2.39 in the first quarter of 2024 from minus 3.06 in the fourth quarter and followed minus 3.44 in the third quarter, minus 2.25 in the second quarter of 2023. Excluding the pandemic period, the third-quarter 2023 reading of minus 3.44 is the worst since minus 4.97 in the second quarter of 2009.
The BOS indicator has declined from its record high of 5.63 hit in the fourth quarter of 2021. The indicator plunged to minus 5.99 in April-June 2020 from minus 0.57 in the previous quarter during the first wave of the pandemic. The entire time series of the indicator is revised after every release.
“Firms’ sales outlooks are mostly unchanged from last quarter and remain more pessimistic than average,” the bank said. “Businesses tied to discretionary spending reported particularly weak sales expectations, while those tied to essential spending see population growth continuing to benefit their sales.”
Investment spending plans also “remain below average” in the face of weak demand, elevated interest rates, uncertainty about the business environment and the high cost of machinery and equipment.
As seen in jobs data, employment creation is not catching up with rapid population growth under Canada’s strong immigration policy. The share of firms reporting labour shortages is “near survey lows” but the bank said “few firms plan to reduce headcounts.”
Businesses expect the growth of their input prices and selling prices to slow, suggesting that inflation will continue to decline over the coming year, the survey showed. Most firms that made abnormally large price increases in the past 12 months do not plan to do so again in the coming year.
“Firms’ expectations for inflation fell in June and are now in the Bank of Canada’s inflation-control range (between 1% to 3%),” the bank said. In the Business Outlook Survey, firms’ expectations for inflation over the next two years are roughly unchanged in the second quarter, at 3.0%, but recent Business Leaders’ Pulse results show monthly expectations for inflation one year ahead fell sharply in June to 2.9% after rising to 3.3% in April from March’s 3.1% and stayed at 3.3% in May.
“In contrast, fiscal policy and housing continue to be seen as fuelling inflation and driving some firms’ uncertainty about when inflation will return to the bank’s 2% target,” the bank said, adding that most respondents expect inflation to return close to the target within two to three years.
In the latest survey, firms’ inflation expectations over the next two years are unchanged at 3.0% in the April-June quarter after easing slightly to 3.0% in January-March form 3.2% in October-December, 3.3% in July-September and 3.5% in April-June 2023. It remains above the bank’s 2% target.
The share of firms expecting inflation to be above 3% over the next two years was also little changed at 41% in the second quarter after falling to 40% in the first quarter survey and edging up to 54% in the fourth quarter from 53% in the third quarter while that of firms foreseeing inflation to be between 2% and 3% fell to 48% after rising sharply to 54% in the first quarter and being unchanged at 39% in the fourth quarter survey.
Consumer inflation is forecast to ease only slightly to 2.8% in June after ticking up to 2.9% in May from a three-year low of 2.7% in April. Until the May report, the bank’s efforts to tame inflation were making a steady progress, bringing it down from last summer’s peak of 4% and the recent high of 8.1% hit in June 2022.
Jobs data released this month showed employment fell 1,400 in June, coming in much weaker than the consensus call of a 21,300 gain and following a 26,7000 rise in May while the unemployment rate rose to 6.4% from 6.2%.
The latest GDP data showed the economy rose 0.3% on the month in April after being flat in March, making a solid start to the April-June quarter. Statistics Canada’s early estimate for May is a 0.1% gain. In the first quarter, the real gross domestic product grew 0.4% on quarter, or an annualized 1.7%, below the consensus forecast of a 2.3% rise and the BoC’s April projection of 2.8%. The annualized growth rate in the previous quarter was revised down to a slight 0.1% from 1.0%.
The survey was conducted in-person, video and phone interviews from May 9 to May 29 before the bank’s June 5 meeting at which it decided to lower its policy interest rate — the target for overnight lending rates — by 25 basis points to 4.75%, as widely expected, to help reduce high mortgage rates and other borrowing costs in light of easing inflation and slower economic growth that is allowing the key rate to be “not as restrictive” as it has been.
Consumers’ Near-Term Inflation Expectations Also Ease in Q2 Survey
In its quarterly survey of consumer expectations for April-June, the Bank of Canada said the inflation outlook remains well above the bank’s 2% target but also pointed to a lower outlook in the near term.
“Consumers’ perceptions of inflation are unchanged from a quarter ago, but their expectations for inflation over the next 12 months have declined significantly,” the bank said. Both measures have improved substantially in recent quarters, although they remain higher than they were before the pandemic.
Consumers’ inflation expectations over the next two years rose to 3.91% in the April-June quarter after falling to 3.76% in the March quarter from 3.94% in the December quarter and 4.04% in the September quarter. By contrast, their outlook for the coming year fell to 4.09% from 4.92% in the first quarter, when it was little changed from 4.91% in the fourth quarter but down from 5.03% in the third quarter.
“Most consumers continue to think that domestic factors—in particular, high government spending and elevated housing costs—are contributing to high inflation,” the bank said.
Perceived financial stress “remains high,” most consumers continue to report spending cuts, and pessimism about future economic conditions persists, it said but added that homebuying intentions are “close to the historical average,” supported by strong plans among newcomers to purchase a home.
Consumers’ perceptions of the labour market have weakened this quarter, especially among private sector employees. However, overall wage growth expectations reached a new survey high, driven by public sector employees who anticipate their salaries will catch up with the higher cost of living.
The consumer survey was conducted through an online panel from April 26 to May 15. Follow-up phone interviews took place from May 14 to May 23.