By Silvia Marchetti
ROME (MaceNews) – The potential candidacy of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to the top office of Italy’s presidency is raising political chaos at a critical time when parties should seek a compromise on a high level, impartial figure to elect, according to political sources.
After having faced 36 trials the scandal-ridden media tycoon might announce in the next few days his availability for the job. This week he held meetings with his Forza Italia group and a key party summit is expected to take place on Friday or next week, ahead of January 24 when parliament will unite to appoint the successor of outgoing President Sergio Mattarella.
Ruling parties are at odds over the election. Democrat party sources said they would never support Berlusconi’s candidacy, while the League could be open to it and ready to vote for him alongside far-right opposition group Brothers of Italy. The 5 Stars Movement, currently still the largest group in parliament, seems to share the Dem’s anti-Berlusconi stance.
But all parties are keeping vague at the moment on what their final move will be.
“Berlusconi has served four times as Italy’s premier; we don’t see why there should be any veto against him running for the presidency. And premier Mario Draghi should stay where he is, as leader of the government, said a League source. “Any way, we believe that after the presidential election there should be some kind of cabinet reshuffle to bring new energy.”.
In the meantime Berlusconi is shopping around for votes, testing the ground. The 85-year-old billionaire, currently still facing two trials, is garnering support among parliamentarians in an “underground” campaign. During the Christmas holidays Berlusconi apparently sent out gifts to deputies and senators in a bid to win them over. And he makes daily “lure” calls.
With support from the center-right and a few minor centrist parties Berlusconi could secure up to 450 votes. But in order to be sure to be named next head of state he’d need about 505. Voting procedures for the presidential election are in fact quite tricky and can run for days. The first three vote rounds require a qualified two-thirds majority (highly unlikely to be reached), from the fourth on an absolute majority (50%+1) is sufficient.
“It really all comes down to “who” many MPs will decide to support last-minute. Given the voting is secret, many could vote for Berlusconi president by ignoring party whips and switching allegiances. It is a risk, yes”, noted a 5 Stars source.
Sources from Berlusconi’s party have warned that if parliament appoints Draghi to the top presidential job Forza Italia would pull out of the government, with the risk of triggering an early vote.
Draghi’s unofficial race still remains the most feasible, though the possibility that Berlusconi could pull it off raises by the day as speculation mounts that he may have a wider than expected support even though he’s a divisive and controversial figure.
Analysts, however, express caution. Sergio Fabbrini, head of the School of Government at ROME’s LUISS University, is confident that at the end common sense will prevail.
“There must be continuity in the Italian presidency; we need a head of state that remains loyal to the traditional pro-European and pro-NATO stances, who fights against sovereign populist pushes and is beyond political affiliation or at least ready to strip himself of all political ideology”, said Fabbrini.
Fabbrini says parties will eventually grasp this requirement and converge on a high-level figure who can guarantee Italy’s credibility and reputation on the global stage. Potential candidates with such a standing include former European commission chief Romano Prodi, current constitutional judge Giuliano Amato and former EC commissioner Emma Bonino.
Contact this reporter: silvia@macenews.com
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