US ISM Manufacturing Slips Back into Contraction in March as Firms Sit on Sidelines, Trim Payrolls Ahead of More Trump Tariffs Expected This Week
–ISM Manufacturing Index at 49.0 Vs. 50.3 in February, Below Consensus (49.6)–ISM’s Fiore: Activity ‘Overshadowed’ by US Import Tariffs; So Many Unknowns, More Confusion–Fiore: Still Think Lower New Orders, Higher Inventories, Slower Supply Deliveries Will Clear Up–Fiore: Tariffs Could Prompt Workers Hit by Higher Costs of Living to Demand Wage Hikes, Triggering Wage-Price Cycle By […]
Preview: BOJ March Quarter Tankan to Show Business Sentiment Slightly Down or Flat amid Uncertainty over Trump Tariffs, Elevated Consumer Inflation
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan business survey is forecast to show confidence among manufacturers slipped in the March quarter in the face of stiff tariffs on U.S. imports of metals and vehicles as well as President Trump’s plans to slap “reciprocal tariffs” on imports from global trading partners. China’s […]
Preview: Bank of Canada Set to Lower Policy Rate Further to 2.75% Today; More Cuts Expected amid High Uncertainty Created by Trump Tariffs
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – The Bank of Canada on Wednesday is widely expected to trim its policy interest rate – the target for overnight lending rates – by another 25 basis points to 2.75% from 3.0%, conducting its seventh straight rate cut, first to ease the pain of high borrowing costs caused by its […]
ISM: US Services Sector Expands for 8th Straight Month in February While Concerns Over Trump Tariffs Darken Outlook
–ISM Services Index at 53.5 in February Vs. 52.8 in January, Above Median Forecast 52.7–ISM’s Miller: Services PMI Has Been Trending Down but More Stable Now, Points to Sustained Growth on Year–Miller: Jump in ISM February Manufacturing Prices Paid Index Amid Higher Commodities Markets Not Yet Feeding Through to Services Prices By Max Sato (MaceNews) […]
TARIFFS STATE OF PLAY: Confusion as Tariffs and Tariff Threats Multiply
WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – As one round of tariffs took effect Tuesday and more were threatened, rampant uncertainty permeated plunging U.S. stock markets while interest rates continued to dramatically ease. Analysts found themselves giving contradictory assessments on the business channels as the probabilities for more Federal Reserve rate cuts this year were coupled with dire predictions […]
US ISM Manufacturing Stays Just Above Neutral Line in February after Ending 2 Years of Contraction in January as Trump Tariffs Trigger Greater Uncertainties
–ISM Manufacturing Index at 50.3 Vs. 50.9 in January, Below Consensus (50.5)–ISM’s Fiore: February Report ‘Overshadowed’ by Tariff Talk among Firms–Fiore: Lower New Orders, Higher Inventories, Slower Supply Deliveries ‘One-Month Blip, Might Clear Up in March or April–Fiore: This Doesn’t Indicate Decline in Overall ISM Manufacturing Activity By Max Sato (MaceNews) – U.S. manufacturing activity […]
Preview: Japan’s Goldilocks Economy to Post Modest 0.3% Q/Q GDP Growth in Q4 as Consumers Stay Frugal amid High Costs, Exports Sluggish in Face of Struggling China, Slowing US
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Japan’s gross domestic product for the October-December quarter is forecast to post its third consecutive growth but a sluggish 0.3% rise on quarter, or an annualized 1.3%. The main growth driver came from a rebound in net exports that was caused by a fall in imports and masks weak exports […]
Preview: Bank of Canada Set to Slow Its Rate Cut Pace to 25 Basis Points Wednesday While Seeking Shelter from Imminent US Import Tariff Storm
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – The Bank of Canada is widely expected to trim its policy interest rate – the target for overnight lending rates – by a “more gradual” pace of 25 basis points to 3.0% on Wednesday in a pre-emptive move to help shield the economy from the threat of stiff tariffs on […]
US December ISM Manufacturing Shows Signs of Pickup on Demand Side but Layoffs Continue Until Yearend
–ISM Manufacturing Index at 49.3 Vs. 48.4 in November, Well Above Median Forecast of 48.5–ISM’s Fiore: ‘We Are Concerned’ About Trump Tariff Threat as It Would Cause Supply Chain Confusion–Fiore: ISM Set to Rise Above Neutral Line of 50 in Q1, ‘If Not In January, Probably in February’–Fiore: Not Much Price Pressure; December CPI, PCE, […]
Japan Still Sees Modest Economic Recovery but Warns It Now Needs to Watch Future US Policy amid Headwinds of Inflation, Middle East Tensions, Weak Yen
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Japan’s government maintained its overall assessment that the economy’s “modest recovery” is set to continue thanks to wage hikes amid widespread labor shortages, but urged a close watch on the future U.S. government policy as well as lingering high costs for necessities, geopolitical risks and the weak yen. In its […]